Global average temperatures may reach historic highs in the coming year as a potentially powerful El Niño climate pattern develops in the tropical Pacific, according to forecasters and climate scientists. Leading meteorological agencies — including the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the United States' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Australia's Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) — are broadly aligned in predicting significant warming in the Pacific, with some models suggesting the event could become one of the strongest on record.
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that disrupts weather patterns worldwide. Scientists measure its intensity by tracking sea surface temperatures in a benchmark area called the Niño3.4 region. A rise of more than 1.5°C above the long-term average classifies an event as "strong," while anything above 2.5°C is considered historically extreme. More than half of ECMWF's forecast models currently point to a temperature increase exceeding 2.5°C by autumn, with some data suggesting it could surpass 3°C — which would eclipse the known peak of 2.7°C recorded during the devastating El Niño of 1877, an event that triggered catastrophic drought and famine across Asia, Africa, and Brazil, killing millions. The last very strong El Niño, in 2015–2016, reached a three-month average warming of 2.4°C. El Niño typically adds around 0.2°C to global average temperatures, and Professor Liz Stephens of the University of Reading says the world is "probably looking at record global temperatures next year, especially if this is a very strong event."
However, scientists caution that forecasting El Niño in spring carries inherent uncertainty — a phenomenon researchers call the "spring predictability barrier." For a full El Niño to develop, the ocean and atmosphere must lock into a self-reinforcing feedback loop: warmer waters weaken trade winds, which in turn push more warm water eastward, amplifying the warming. That loop has not yet clearly engaged. As of mid-May 2026, wind patterns needed to drive further warming were not firmly established, and a westward wind burst was expected in the second half of May — a potential brake on ocean warming. Forecasts for the 2026–27 event still range widely, from weak to strong conditions, and precedents from 2014 and 2017 show that impressive early signals can fade if the atmosphere does not cooperate.
The stakes, nonetheless, are significant enough to warrant early preparation. A strong El Niño could weaken India's monsoon rains, which support agriculture and water supplies for hundreds of millions of people. It would likely bring drought and elevated wildfire risk to parts of Australia, Indonesia, and northern South America, while increasing flooding risks in Peru, Ecuador, East Africa, and parts of Central Asia. The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be quieter than average — typically a side effect of strong El Niño conditions — but that also means reduced rainfall for Central America, raising the risk of drought. Food production in several vulnerable regions could be affected, with knock-on consequences for global food stocks.
Experts stress that the wide range of possible outcomes is itself a reason to act now rather than wait for certainty. Communities in high-risk areas — particularly those dependent on monsoon rainfall or exposed to flooding — need to begin building resilience in their water and agricultural systems before the picture becomes clearer. NOAA's next major forecast update in mid-June is expected to significantly sharpen the outlook.