Ten years ago this month, the United Kingdom voted 52% to 48% to leave the European Union, setting in motion the most sweeping transformation of British political and economic life since the Second World War. Though the formal departure took nearly five years to complete, the referendum result of 23 June 2016 immediately fractured the country and continues to shape its politics, economy, and national identity today.

The economic reckoning has been gradual but cumulative. Economists now estimate that Brexit has left the UK economy between 4% and 8% smaller than it would otherwise have been, weighing on trade, investment, and productivity. British exporters face a thicket of non-tariff barriers with the EU — their largest trading partner — including customs paperwork, border certifications, and regulatory checks, even though no tariffs apply. Many of the trade deals that Brexit supporters promised, most prominently one with the United States, have not materialised. In Scotland, the Europe minister told the devolved parliament that Brexit cost the country an estimated £3.3 billion in lost revenue last year alone and added £250 to the average household food bill. Analysts caution that the full picture is complicated by overlapping crises — the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the 2008 banking crisis's long shadow, and global trade disruption — but the consensus among economists is that Brexit has amplified pre-existing weaknesses.

The political consequences have been equally far-reaching. Since 2016, the UK has had six prime ministers, a rate of turnover with few modern parallels. The immigration debate, which was central to the Leave campaign's promise to "take back control" of Britain's borders, has not been resolved by Brexit. EU migration has fallen sharply, but non-EU migration surged — driven partly by post-pandemic labour shortages — before net migration fell back to around 171,000 last year from a peak of over 900,000 in 2023. Meanwhile, the sight of migrants crossing the English Channel in small boats — 46,000 at the 2022 peak — has become a defining and divisive political issue, fuelling the rise of Nigel Farage's Reform UK party on the right, while sparking episodes of racially motivated violence in cities including Belfast and Southampton. Critics note that hostile rhetoric from politicians and parts of the press has contributed to that atmosphere, and that Labour, in government since 2024, has struggled to find a coherent response.

Brexit also reshaped the territorial politics of the United Kingdom. Scotland voted 62% to 38% to remain in the EU, and that sense of being pulled out of Europe against its will has sustained support for Scottish independence, which currently stands at around 50% in polls. Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dugdale, who on the morning of the result told then First Minister Nicola Sturgeon "this changes everything," argues that Brexit reframed the independence question as one of fundamental fairness. However, independence support did not surge as dramatically as some expected: economic insecurity, the NHS, and the cost of living have come to dominate Scottish politics, partly as downstream effects of Brexit itself.

A decade on, public opinion has shifted substantially. A poll by the European Council on Foreign Relations found that roughly two-thirds of British respondents believe Brexit has had negative effects on the country, 57% consider it a mistake, and three-quarters support closer ties with the EU. A separate Ipsos poll found that 52% would like to rejoin the EU. Yet a return to membership remains politically off the table for now: the Labour government has ruled out rejoining the EU or its single market, and Andy Burnham, who won a by-election on Thursday and is widely seen as a potential future Labour leader, was explicit that he respects the 2016 vote and is not proposing to reverse it. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has instead pursued a diplomatic "reset" with Brussels, with a further summit planned for next month. Whether that incremental approach can satisfy a public increasingly convinced that Brexit has not delivered on its promises remains the central question of British politics.