Flávio Bolsonaro, a far-right senator and son of the jailed former president Jair Bolsonaro, finished first in the opening round of Brazil's presidential election and will face incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a runoff on 25 October. Bolsonaro won about 47% of the vote, against roughly 44% to 45% for Lula, according to the figures cited by different outlets. The result has alarmed climate and nature campaigners, and on Wednesday thousands of people joined a student march in downtown Rio de Janeiro to protest against a Bolsonaro return to power.
Environmental concern centres on the Amazon, the world's largest rainforest and a vital buffer against global warming. Deforestation there fell by almost 50% under Lula's current government, but it rose by 59.5% during Jair Bolsonaro's 2019-2022 term. Critics note that Flávio backed a 2019 bill to remove requirements for Amazon landowners to preserve native vegetation, and that his manifesto does not mention the climate crisis. Allies of the Bolsonaro movement now control seven of the nine Amazon states, and a Bolsonarist candidate in Pará, who was fined for illegal clearing, has promised to waive such penalties. Lula's environmental allies fared poorly: former environment minister Marina Silva lost a Senate bid, and only two of 57 Indigenous candidates won seats.
The vote also reshaped Congress. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) won 19 of the 54 Senate seats up for election, giving it 28 of 81, its strongest showing for any party since the late-1980s constitution, and is projected to become the largest force in the lower house. Analysts quoted by RFI say the Senate matters because a two-thirds majority can start impeachment proceedings against Supreme Court justices. Bolsonaro supporters have long targeted Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who oversaw the case in which Jair Bolsonaro received a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup. Flávio has promised an amnesty for his father and for those involved in the 8 January 2023 riots. Even if Lula wins, specialists say he would face a hostile Senate that could block Supreme Court and central bank appointments, and would have to rely on the shifting centrist bloc known as the Centrão.
Foreign policy is another focus. Folha de S.Paulo reports that Bolsonaro told Colombia's president, Abelardo de la Espriella, he would bring Brazil into the Shield of the Americas, a Trump-led security cooperation initiative, to fight criminal gangs such as the Comando Vermelho and PCC. Washington has designated both groups as terrorist organisations. Allies say membership would follow quickly after a win, though the US State Department did not comment. Brazil's intelligence agency has warned of possible US interference in the election.
Why this matters: Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and home to the biggest share of the Amazon. Analysts say no first-round leader has ever lost a Brazilian presidential runoff, and many eliminated candidates were on the right. Lula's best hope is to win over the more than 20% of voters who abstained. Explanations for his difficulties include the right's effective use of social media, the growth of Pentecostal churches, and farmers' resentment of environmental limits.