The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a stark warning that an El Niño weather phenomenon is almost certain to develop by the end of 2026, urging governments, aid organisations and climate-sensitive industries to prepare for a period of intensified extreme weather. Forecasts from the WMO's global network put the probability of El Niño conditions establishing themselves at 80% for the June–August window, rising to near or above 90% by November. Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate in strength, with some indicators pointing toward an exceptionally strong episode — one in which sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific could peak at around three degrees Celsius above normal, well beyond the typical deviation of 0.5 to 1.5 degrees.
El Niño is a recurring natural climate phenomenon — occurring every two to seven years and typically lasting nine to twelve months — in which unusually warm ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific disrupt global wind and rainfall patterns. Its effects are felt worldwide: South America, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia tend to see increased rainfall, while Australia, Indonesia, the Caribbean, and Central America often face drier and hotter conditions. In Australia, nine of the ten driest winter-spring periods on record have occurred during El Niño years, and the coming event is already prompting warnings of heightened drought, heatwave, and bushfire risk. During northern hemisphere summer, El Niño typically fuels more hurricanes in the Pacific while suppressing their formation in the Atlantic.
The WMO also projects near-universal above-normal temperatures across the globe for June to August, accelerating the onset of drought where rainfall is already reduced. Regional forecasts point to below-normal rainfall in the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June–September rainy season, below-average monsoon rainfall in South Asia, and drier, warmer summer conditions across Central America. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned of