The number of people forcibly displaced worldwide has declined for the first time in ten years, according to the UN refugee agency UNHCR's annual Global Trends Report, released in Geneva. By the end of 2025, 41.6 million people were registered as refugees — a three per cent drop from the previous year — while the number of internally displaced people, those who flee their homes but do not cross an international border, fell by seven per cent to 68.7 million. At the same time, a record 14.7 million displaced people returned to their areas or countries of origin, the second-highest annual return figure in the six decades since records began. Yet UNHCR High Commissioner Barham Salih was careful not to frame the figures as cause for celebration.

Behind the headline numbers lies a more troubling picture. Six countries accounted for 92 per cent of all returns: the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Myanmar. Around two million people returned to Afghanistan, but a significant portion did so under duress — Pakistan forcibly pushed tens of thousands of Afghan refugees across the border, and Iran tightened its rules for Afghan nationals remaining on its territory. In Congo, large-scale returns followed the forced closure of refugee camps rather than genuine improvements in safety. Even those who returned voluntarily frequently found destroyed infrastructure, absent basic services and intermittent violence, particularly in Syria and Sudan.

The broader displacement landscape remains deeply unequal. Seventy per cent of the world's refugees originate from just six countries: Afghanistan, Ukraine, Sudan, Syria, Venezuela and South Sudan. Two-thirds are hosted in neighbouring — often poorer — countries. Colombia shelters the largest number, at 2.9 million, followed by Germany with 2.7 million, and then Türkiye, Uganda, Iran, Chad and Pakistan. Sudan, itself engulfed in conflict, simultaneously hosts the largest internally displaced population of any country, at 9.1 million.

The UNHCR also flagged a sharp decline in resettlement opportunities, with arrivals through resettlement or sponsorship pathways falling by more than half in a single year to just 81,800 — a figure that highlights the widening gap between the scale of need and the places made available by wealthier nations. Salih called for a fundamental change in approach, setting a concrete goal of reducing by more than half, over the next decade, the number of refugees in long-term displacement who rely entirely on humanitarian aid. He also invoked the 75th anniversary of the 1951 Refugee Convention to urge states to recommit to its core principle of non-refoulement — the rule that no one may be returned to a place where they face danger. "That is non-negotiable," he said.

Looking ahead, the agency struck a cautious note. Seventy per cent of the world's refugees have already been waiting more than five years for a durable solution. Ongoing conflicts show little sign of resolution, and the UNHCR warned that the first half of 2026 has already seen fresh displacement on a large scale, citing military operations in the Middle East that have uprooted more than a million people in Lebanon and over three million in Iran. While one statistical milestone has been reached, the agency is emphatic that a decade-low figure still represents an unacceptably high level of human suffering.