The head of Germany's foreign intelligence service, the BND, has warned that the country is in danger of being drawn into a violent conflict with Russia. Martin Jäger made the remarks on Monday 5 October at the annual public hearing of the Bundestag's parliamentary oversight committee in Berlin. The committee, made up of lawmakers who monitor the intelligence agencies, normally meets in secret; one session a year is held in public. Observers noted the warnings were more serious than in recent years.
"The confrontation with Russia has taken on a new and more dangerous character," Jäger told the committee. He said no other country currently poses such a direct, comprehensive and concrete threat to Germany, citing the failed attack on Leipzig airport this summer, in which drones carrying explosives were reportedly meant to destroy a transport aircraft, as just one example. Sinan Selen, president of the domestic intelligence agency (BfV), said Russian services were showing a willingness to carry out sabotage and killings in addition to traditional espionage. Martina Rosenberg, head of the military counterintelligence service MAD, said such acts aim to undermine citizens' confidence in the state's ability to defend itself.
The three officials stressed that they see no indication of an imminent large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory. However, Jäger said limited, low-intensity Russian actions in the Baltic states are realistic, intended to test how NATO and the EU react. He pointed to a "little green men" scenario like Crimea in 2014, when unmarked soldiers appeared and then occupied territory. Russian drone flights into NATO airspace are also seen as probing the alliance.
Jäger said Germany has become a prime target because it is the centre of European support for Ukraine, and he expects more attacks, particularly on military transports. Recent incidents attributed to Russian services include arson at a defence company in Munich, the discovery of a weapons cache near Berlin and drone activity around critical infrastructure. He also said the war in Ukraine is entering a more dangerous phase and that President Vladimir Putin needs a success to justify Russia's heavy losses. Confrontation with Russia, he added, would not end with the war in Ukraine.
The warnings come amid domestic debate. A substantial minority of Germans, around four in ten according to polling cited by Dutch broadcaster NOS, think weapons support for Ukraine goes too far, and parties sceptical of that support, including the far-right AfD and the Left Party, made gains in state elections last month. Jäger warned that any sign of hesitation encourages Moscow to increase pressure. Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced a new aid package during a visit to Kyiv this weekend.
The hearing also touched on a long-delayed reform that would widen the agencies' powers, which are currently limited largely to gathering information. The government says it will come this autumn or winter. Clara Bünger of the Left Party criticised the plans, arguing that Selen gave no convincing answer on how to stop a future AfD government from gaining access to sensitive data and using it against political opponents.