A United States Army special forces soldier pleaded not guilty on Tuesday to charges that he used classified information about the mission to capture former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to win more than $400,000 on a prediction market. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, a master sergeant stationed at Fort Bragg near Fayetteville, North Carolina, entered the plea before US District Judge Margaret Garnett in Manhattan federal court.
Prosecutors allege that Van Dyke was directly involved in the planning and execution of the January 2026 raid that captured Maduro — who had governed Venezuela for over a decade before being removed from power — and his wife, Cilia Flores. Having signed nondisclosure agreements tied to the operation, Van Dyke nonetheless placed $33,000 worth of bets on Polymarket, one of the world's largest prediction markets, between 27 December 2025 and 2 January 2026. At the time, the platform assigned low probabilities to Maduro leaving office or US forces entering Venezuela, meaning Van Dyke's wagers generated profits of more than $404,000. He faces five criminal counts: unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain, theft of non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and making an unlawful monetary transaction. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has also filed civil charges.
The case is historically significant as the first time the US Department of Justice has filed insider trading charges involving a prediction market — platforms that allow users to trade or wager on the outcomes of real-world events. Polymarket's CEO said the platform flagged Van Dyke's suspicious trading activity and cooperated with investigators. Prosecutors say evidence will include cryptocurrency exchange records, social media accounts, and material obtained through grand jury subpoenas and search warrants. Van Dyke was released on $250,000 bond, with travel restricted to parts of New York, North Carolina, and California, and is due back in court on 8 June for a pretrial conference.
The case arrives at a moment of intense scrutiny for the prediction market industry. Policymakers have been calling for stricter regulation amid growing concerns about the potential for insider trading on such platforms. The political backdrop adds complexity: the Trump administration has been broadly supportive of the industry's expansion, and the president's eldest son serves as an adviser to both Polymarket and its main competitor, Kalshi, while also holding an investment stake in Polymarket. Trump's social media platform, Truth Social, is separately launching its own prediction market.
Defence attorney Zach Intrater indicated that he does not expect major disputes over the facts of the underlying events, suggesting the legal battle will hinge instead on pretrial motions he intends to file on his client's behalf. The outcome could set an important precedent for how insider trading laws apply in the fast-growing and lightly regulated world of prediction markets.