In the quiet town of Kware, in Nigeria's northwestern Sokoto State, Maryam Aminu watched her 18-month-old daughter be diagnosed with malnutrition for the second time in April. The family of eight had long struggled with poverty, but their situation sharply worsened after February, when her husband Shehu lost his job as a taxi driver following a sudden spike in petrol prices — a consequence of the ongoing war in Iran. "Times are tough, and the food is not consistent," she said from the living area of their unvarnished two-bedroom home. "I wish she were excited and full of life."

The family's ordeal reflects a broader crisis unfolding across northern Nigeria, one of the world's poorest regions, where the effects of a distant war are being felt with devastating force. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which a fifth of the world's oil and gas once flowed — triggered a global fuel shock that sent the price of everything from groceries to fertiliser soaring. In Nigeria, fuel pump prices jumped from 800 naira (roughly $0.58) per litre in February to 1,400 naira ($1.02) by April. Health workers in Sokoto told the Associated Press they are seeing a sharp rise in children relapsing into malnutrition: records at one local hospital show nearly 40 previously treated children are currently back under care, with others going undocumented. "I am not happy to see the number of women coming to the health facility with their malnourished children increasing," said health worker Halimah Muhammad.

The crisis is compounded by pre-existing pressures. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu's economic reform programme — which removed fuel subsidies three years ago and devalued the national currency — had already sparked high inflation. A World Bank technical report released this week found that 139 million Nigerians are now poor or vulnerable to poverty. Northern Nigeria is also caught in an intensifying security crisis, with communities facing attacks from both bandit groups specialising in kidnapping and expanding Islamist militant networks, making it harder still for farming households to access their land during the planting season.

UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell visited Sokoto on Friday to draw international attention to the situation. Her agency warned this week that up to 23.4 million additional children worldwide could fall into monetary poverty by the end of the year if the Middle East conflict continues, with at least 80% of those in Africa and Asia. Between 6.5 million and 8.8 million of that total would be in Africa alone. "Children are paying the price for the escalating conflict," Russell said, "including children far beyond the region." She warned that the long-term consequences extend well beyond hunger: children facing economic hardship are more likely to be stunted and more likely to drop out of school. "Their development will be compromised. The long-term implications for children are absolutely terrible."

For Shehu Aminu, the arithmetic of survival is stark. "Back then, 2,000 naira was enough to buy a nutritious meal for the family," he said. "Today, even 5,000 naira cannot buy the same items." Most meals are now pap — a corn pudding — and rice. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has been attempting to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through a combination of airstrikes, naval blockades, negotiations and threats, but the route remains disrupted. For families in Sokoto, analysts note, the geopolitical standoff offers little immediate comfort. "This distant war offers no relief for the north's vulnerable," said Ikemesit Effiong, a partner at SBM Intelligence, a Lagos-based geopolitical risk advisory firm.