Six months after the United States and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on 28 February, the conflict has settled into a grinding stalemate with no peace deal in sight — and the Strait of Hormuz at its centre. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claims decisive control over the strategic waterway, while Washington insists it remains open under an active US naval blockade. The competing claims reflect a broader deadlock: diplomatic talks have collapsed, a June agreement fell apart within weeks, and both sides are digging in.
The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which a significant share of the world's oil passes, has become the war's defining pressure point. Iran, which holds up to 2,500 kilometres of coastline and 31 islands in the Gulf, has used the threat of disruption rather than outright closure to exert leverage — wary that a full blockade could invite international intervention or cause environmental damage from oil spills. The US, meanwhile, has conducted mine-clearing operations along the international shipping lane and says 155 vessels carrying more than 750 million barrels of oil have transited through it since May. Yet military analysts caution that neither side holds undisputed control: Iran can threaten and disrupt navigation, while the US can sustain economic pressure and prevent Iranian oil exports.
The war's original objectives — destroying Iran's nuclear programme, dismantling its missile arsenal, cutting off support for proxy groups, and encouraging regime change — have each yielded mixed results. Iran's nuclear infrastructure has been severely damaged but not destroyed, and experts warn the conflict may actually strengthen Tehran's resolve to eventually build a weapon. Roughly one-third of Iran's missile stocks were destroyed by late March, and 85% of its defence industrial base reportedly hit, yet by July Iran was firing technically improved ballistic missiles at US bases in the region. At least 18 US troops have been killed and some 500 injured. Iran's new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei — son of his assassinated predecessor — has consolidated power around hardline military allies rather than moderates, making the regime, in the words of former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf, "hardened and very radical."
The economic toll is significant on all sides. Brent crude prices are roughly 22% higher than before the war, straining the global economy. In Tehran, ordinary Iranians describe acute hardship — wages outpaced by daily costs — while others express defiance rooted in decades of living under sanctions. Mohsen Rezaei, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, has threatened that if the economic war continues, no oil will leave the Persian Gulf. The Trump administration has launched what it calls an "economic D-Day" campaign of tightened sanctions, though analysts say it may take weeks more to assess its impact.
Why this matters: The Strait of Hormuz carries an outsized share of global energy supplies, and prolonged instability there ripples through fuel prices, shipping insurance, and the security calculations of Gulf Arab states that have long relied on American protection. Gulf nations are already uneasy about gaps in the US security umbrella. Israel, too, has emerged from six months of fighting without defeating its adversary and with the prospect of normalising relations with Saudi Arabia now looking remote. As one analyst put it, Iran risks confusing survival with victory — but the same uncertainty applies to Washington, which entered the conflict expecting a short, decisive campaign and finds itself in a costly, open-ended confrontation.