Myanmar's military has recaptured 22 towns lost since its 2021 coup, including Falam — the strategic capital of Chin State (a mountainous region bordering India) — forcing opposition resistance groups into a defensive retreat after years of territorial gains. Analysts attribute the military's resurgence to a mass conscription drive that has added roughly 150,000 troops since 2024, an intensive air campaign that killed at least 314 civilians in just three months, and Chinese diplomatic pressure that has sidelined key ethnic armed groups and restricted weapons supplies to opposition forces. While analysts warn the conflict is likely to become a prolonged war of attrition rather than a decisive military victory for either side, opposition fighters say they are adapting their tactics and remain committed to continuing the struggle.