A diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran, brokered by Pakistan, has raised cautious hopes for an end to the ongoing conflict in Lebanon — but deep uncertainty remains over whether the deal will translate into a halt to Israeli military operations against Hezbollah.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who was the first to announce the agreement, said the memorandum of understanding calls for the "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon." Both Washington and Tehran have claimed the deal as a victory. US President Donald Trump declared it would "bring Peace and Security to the whole Region," while Iran's deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi hailed what he described as his country's military achievements. The agreement is also expected to see the lifting of Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz — the critical waterway through which a large share of the world's oil passes — and the removal of a US blockade on Iranian ports, though neither measure may take effect immediately.

For Lebanon, however, the path to peace is far from clear. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has shown no indication of being willing to end Israel's current offensive against Hezbollah, the Iran-backed armed group and political movement that holds significant influence in southern Lebanon and the country's south. In the past week alone, Israeli strikes on the southern suburbs of Beirut came close to derailing the entire diplomatic process, while Iran only held back from a retaliatory missile strike in order to allow the deal to proceed. Two previous ceasefires in Lebanon have already collapsed, leaving many Lebanese deeply sceptical that this latest announcement will be any different.

On the ground in southern Lebanon, the humanitarian situation remains dire. Doctors at hospitals in the Nabatieh region — a city in southern Lebanon that has seen intense fighting — have refused Israeli evacuation orders and continue to operate under fire. The director of Nabatieh Government Hospital described performing surgeries while listening to bombardment, and working across multiple facilities with a skeleton staff. His counterpart at the nearby Najdeh Popular Hospital said Israeli forces had advanced to within five or six kilometres of the building, forcing it to function as a field hospital, stabilising critical patients before transferring them to Sidon or Beirut. According to the World Health Organization, 17 hospitals across Lebanon have been damaged in the recent escalation, 135 healthcare workers and first responders have been killed, and approximately 400 others wounded.

The broader significance of the US-Iran agreement extends beyond Lebanon. For Gulf states such as the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, the deal offers at least temporary relief from the threat of Iranian missile strikes that had cast a shadow over their economic models. A key unresolved question, however, is the extent to which the deal includes binding mechanisms to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon — the stated rationale for both the US and Israel going to war. Iranian state media has suggested such a mechanism may be included, but details remain unclear and are expected to require further intensive negotiation before a formal signing ceremony, still several days away.