Heavy gunfire erupted in central Mogadishu on Wednesday as Somalia's former Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire accused government forces of attacking him ahead of planned anti-government demonstrations, deepening a political crisis that has gripped the country since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud extended his time in office beyond its constitutional limit.

Khaire, who served as prime minister from 2017 to 2020, had relocated from his base in the heavily fortified green zone around the airport to his residence in the city's Howl Wadaag district in order to participate in protests scheduled for Thursday. In a social media post, he said: "An attack was launched against us by forces commanded by the president whose term has expired," adding that they had been preparing for a "peaceful demonstration." Witnesses told AFP that armed opposition forces were seen clashing with Somali police, and one resident, Saleban Mahad, described the violence: "The shooting lasted for about 15 minutes before it subsided. They even used RPGs, and the sound of the explosions could be heard across the surrounding neighbourhoods." Former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who had also moved into central Mogadishu for Thursday's protest, condemned the attack, saying Mohamud "seeks to cause further bloodshed despite not having a legitimate official mandate."

The crisis stems from Mohamud's announcement that his presidential term — due to expire on May 15 — had been extended by one year following the passage of a new constitution by parliament in March. He argues the constitution, which sets a framework for direct elections replacing the country's traditional clan-elder-based selection system, grants him the additional time needed to organise those polls. Opposition figures and regional leaders have firmly rejected this interpretation, viewing it as a move to consolidate power rather than advance democracy.

Somalia has long struggled with political instability, clan divisions, and an Islamist insurgency. Much of the country remains under the influence of al-Shabaab, an al-Qaeda-linked armed group that controls large swaths of territory, making the organisation of nationwide elections extremely difficult beyond a few localised areas. The precedent of presidents overstaying their mandates is not new — former President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo remained in office for more than a year past the end of his term in 2021, triggering violence and international condemnation. Efforts by the United States and the United Kingdom to broker dialogue between the government and opposition have so far yielded little progress.

The attack on Khaire and the prospect of large-scale protests in the capital raise serious concerns about a further deterioration of security in Mogadishu at a moment when the country can ill afford internal conflict. With foreign mediation stalled and both sides hardening their positions, the coming days will test whether Somalia's fragile institutions can withstand yet another cycle of political confrontation.