The European Union is poised to advance on two long-stalled foreign policy fronts — a €90 billion loan to Ukraine and sanctions on violent Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank — following the electoral defeat of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who had blocked both measures for months. EU officials said on Monday they expected rapid progress as Hungary prepares to transition to a new government under incoming prime minister Péter Magyar.
Cyprus, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, confirmed that Wednesday's meeting of diplomats from all 27 member states will take up what it described as "the last element needed" to allow disbursement of the Ukraine loan — a reference widely understood to mean the removal of Hungary's obstruction. The loan, which Kyiv urgently needs to cover budget deficits and sustain its defence against Russia's ongoing invasion, had been held up by Orbán as leverage in a dispute over the Druzhba pipeline, a Soviet-era oil transit route through which Russian crude flows to central Europe. Ukraine had shut the pipeline, citing a Russian attack; Orbán demanded its restoration before releasing the funds. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced this week that the pipeline would return to operation by the end of April, further smoothing the path for the loan. French President Emmanuel Macron said he was "reasonably optimistic" that disbursement could now proceed, while Magyar has pledged to work constructively with Brussels and called for the pipeline's reopening.
On Israel, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the bloc would assess member states' appetite for a package of measures that has sat dormant since last year. The options on the table include sanctions on hardline Israeli settlers in the West Bank and a potential suspension of the EU-Israel cooperation agreement — a step championed by Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. EU attitudes toward Israel have hardened over the civilian toll of the Gaza war, the Israeli military campaign in Lebanon, and a new Israeli law introducing the death penalty for Palestinians in the West Bank. Foreign ministers were due to discuss the matter at a Tuesday meeting in Luxembourg. Kallas noted pointedly that one country had vetoed the settler sanctions for months and that its elections had now produced a new government, stopping short of naming Hungary directly.
The path forward is not without obstacles. Suspending the EU-Israel cooperation agreement in its entirety requires unanimity among the 27 member states, making it effectively impossible given Israel's remaining allies in the bloc. A more targeted suspension of trade-facilitation provisions would need only a weighted majority, but would still require a shift in position from major EU powers such as Germany. Italy has already signalled a harder line by suspending a bilateral defence agreement with Israel. Officials say the settler sanctions could receive the greenlight soon, though formal approval may await Hungary's new government taking office in May.
Orbán's decade-long tenure made him the EU's most prominent internal disruptor, using Hungary's veto power to extract concessions and shield allies from censure. Magyar's election victory removes that brake on EU decision-making, at least for now, and officials in Brussels are moving quickly to capitalise on the opening. Whether the change in Budapest translates into durable shifts on Ukraine funding and Middle East policy will depend as much on the broader will of member states as on Hungary's new posture.