Pakistan is preparing to host a second round of direct negotiations between the United States and Iran as early as this weekend, with mediators reporting a significant breakthrough that could pave the way for a landmark agreement to end a war that has sent global energy markets into turmoil.
The two sides held their first rare direct talks in Islamabad — Pakistan's capital — over the weekend of April 12–13, but concluded without a deal. Since then, back-channel diplomacy has intensified. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who has emerged as the key mediator, travelled to Tehran and is said to have resolved several "sticky issues." A Pakistani source familiar with the process described the expected next steps: both sides would first sign a memorandum of understanding, with a comprehensive agreement to follow within 60 days. "Detailed agreement comes later. Both sides are agreeing in principle. And technical bits come later," the source said.
President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone, telling reporters outside the White House that he believed the two sides were "very close to making a deal," and later saying in Las Vegas that the war "should be ending pretty soon." He added that if a final agreement were signed in Islamabad, he might travel there in person. Iran has also given an in-principle agreement to extend the current two-week ceasefire — due to expire on April 22 — to allow more time for diplomacy. A parallel 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group that entered the conflict in early March, came into effect on Thursday, though it remained fragile, with reports of Israeli shelling of southern Lebanese villages shortly after it began.
A key sticking point remains Iran's nuclear programme. At last weekend's Islamabad talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity, while Tehran counter-proposed a three-to-five year halt. Trump said Iran had offered not to possess nuclear weapons for more than 20 years. Washington is also pressing for highly enriched uranium to be removed from Iran and for the lifting of international sanctions — a central Iranian demand.
The stakes extend well beyond the region. The war, triggered by a US-Israeli strike on Iran on February 28, has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil and gas supply passes — causing the worst oil price shock in recorded history and prompting the International Monetary Fund to warn of a potential global recession. Oil prices dipped on Friday as deal hopes grew, with Brent crude falling to around $98 a barrel. The war has also become a domestic political liability for Trump ahead of crucial midterm elections. France and Britain were set to chair a meeting of around 40 countries on Friday to signal allied readiness to help restore freedom of navigation in the strait once conditions allow.