Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has issued a stark warning that Russia is planning drone and missile strikes against NATO countries supporting Ukraine, with intelligence assessments describing the threat as "very consistent and convincing." Speaking before the Polish parliament, Tusk said the coming autumn and winter could prove "the most critical moment" in Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, and announced a visit to Kyiv to discuss the threat with President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Tusk described a deliberate Russian strategy of staging attacks that would appear accidental, targeting nations on NATO's eastern flank — a grouping that includes Poland, the Baltic states of Latvia and Lithuania, and other countries along the alliance's border with Russia and Belarus. The goal, he argued, would be to portray any strike as an unintended incident rather than an act of aggression, thereby undermining the political will of alliance members to invoke Article 5, the collective defence clause of the NATO treaty. "The aim will be to weaken NATO's integrity in general and, above all, to convince member states that Article 5 is more theoretical than practical," Tusk said, adding that Russia was counting on the assumption that "no one will want to die for Latvia or Lithuania" over what could be framed as a series of accidents.
The warning follows a series of incidents that have already brought the conflict closer to Polish territory. Polish and NATO fighter jets have been scrambled repeatedly in recent weeks in response to Russian strikes on western Ukraine, triggering air raid sirens in Polish border regions. Parts of Polish airspace were temporarily closed, and two eastern airfields were shut as a precaution. Similar incidents have been reported near the Moldovan border with Ukraine. Tusk also highlighted Russia's increasing use of faster, higher-flying drones that are harder for air defence systems to detect, an issue he said he would raise directly with Zelensky.
The broader context is one of escalating pressure on Ukraine's western supply lines. Tusk has said Russia is now targeting border crossings between Ukraine and its European neighbours in an effort to disrupt the flow of military and humanitarian aid. He warned that Poland and its allies should expect "provocations far more dangerous than those we have faced so far," but pledged a firm response: "If anyone dares to attack us, they will face a resolute response from us and our allies." The speech underscored deepening anxiety across central and eastern Europe about the risk of the war spreading beyond Ukraine's borders.