Seven members of the OPEC+ alliance have agreed to raise collective oil output by 188,000 barrels per day from August, marking the fifth consecutive monthly production increase as crude prices retreat toward the levels seen before the US-Israel war on Iran began in late February. The participating countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — announced the decision following a virtual meeting to review global market conditions, with officials pledging to retain "full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse" the adjustments depending on how markets evolve. The group is set to meet again on August 2 for a further review.

The production boost is the latest step in a gradual unwinding of deep cuts that OPEC+ was forced into by the war. When the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February, Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas passed before the conflict. With tanker traffic blocked, Middle Eastern producers had nowhere to ship their crude, forcing them to slash output dramatically. Total OPEC+ production fell to 33.13 million barrels per day in May, down sharply from 42.77 million in February. An interim memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 by US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian began to reopen the strait, though ship traffic remains well below pre-war levels. Iran's military command warned as recently as last Thursday that tankers must use approved routes or face a "forceful response."

Despite the formal production increase, analysts caution that the announcement is largely symbolic for now. Because OPEC+ members are still ramping up exports after months of enforced cuts, actual output remains well below official quotas. Saudi Arabia has more than doubled its shipping volume since June 17 compared with the prior three months combined, and Iran has pushed close to 50 million barrels of stored crude to market since the naval blockade lifted. Russia's western port exports hit a record high in June, partly because Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries have forced Moscow to redirect crude abroad. The United Arab Emirates, notably, quit OPEC as of May 1 and is not party to the latest agreement.

Brent crude futures stood at around $71.78 a barrel on Monday morning in Asia, close to the $72.48 settlement price recorded on February 27 — the day before hostilities began — and far below the near-$120 peak reached in March. Analysts point to a convergence of factors pushing prices down: recovering Gulf exports, a backlog of Iranian crude entering the market, softer Chinese demand, and higher Russian and US output. S&P Global Energy has estimated that Gulf oil production is unlikely to rebound fully before at least the first quarter of 2027, and energy experts warn that elevated fuel and consumer goods prices may persist well beyond the end of the conflict. For now, traders are watching US-Iran negotiations closely, with a final peace agreement still not concluded.