Diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war entered a critical phase this week, with both sides exchanging draft texts and proposals through Pakistani intermediaries, even as deep disagreements over uranium stockpiles and control of the Strait of Hormuz continue to cloud prospects for a final deal.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a cautiously optimistic tone on Thursday, saying there were "some good signs" following visits to Tehran by Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi, who travelled to the Iranian capital for a second time in a week and met with senior Iranian officials including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. "I believe the Pakistanis will be travelling to Tehran today. So hopefully that'll advance this further," Rubio told reporters. Reports from Iran's ISNA news agency suggested that Chief of Defence Forces Field Marshal Asim Munir could also travel to Tehran if Naqvi's efforts sufficiently narrowed the gaps — though Pakistan's military made no official confirmation. A senior Iranian official described a deal as close, while a second Iranian source cautioned it was too early to declare progress definitive.
At the heart of the stalled negotiations are two interlocking disputes. Washington insists on recovering Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which the US says is intended for nuclear weapons — a charge Tehran rejects. The more immediate flashpoint, however, is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which a significant share of the world's oil passes. Iran this week announced the establishment of a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," claiming regulatory jurisdiction over the strait and stating that transit requires authorisation from the new body. The claimed zone extends into waters also claimed by the United Arab Emirates, prompting a sharp rebuke from Emirati presidential adviser Anwar Gargash, who called Iran's move "pipe dreams" born from "clear military defeat." Rubio called any tolling arrangement "completely illegal" and warned it would make a diplomatic solution unfeasible.
Negotiators are now focused on constructing a narrowly defined stabilisation framework to extend the existing ceasefire — which has held for roughly six weeks — and create space for more structured follow-up talks over the next 30 days. Iran's latest proposal to Washington reportedly included demands for sanctions relief, release of frozen assets, compensation for war damage, and a degree of control over Hormuz — terms the US has previously rejected. Diplomats warn that if talks collapse at this stage, the region risks sliding back toward military confrontation. Trump has reiterated that the US is prepared to resume strikes if negotiations fail, while Iran's Revolutionary Guards have warned that renewed attacks would trigger retaliation beyond the region.
The stakes extend well beyond the two countries. The International Energy Agency has described the conflict as the world's worst energy shock, warning that peak summer demand could push global oil markets into the "red zone" in the coming months. Iran has allowed only limited shipping through Hormuz compared with pre-war levels, and a new opinion poll in the United States suggests 60 percent of Americans now oppose the war. Rubio also renewed criticism of NATO allies — he was heading to alliance talks in Sweden — for refusing to support the US effort, saying President Trump was "not asking them to send their fighter jets in," but that Washington was "very upset" by the lack of solidarity.