Mali's military, backed by Russian mercenaries, has launched airstrikes on the northern city of Kidal and other areas as it struggles to recover from a devastating rebel offensive that has shaken the ruling junta to its core. The campaign has come at a steep civilian cost, with at least ten civilians reported killed in army strikes — a toll that underscores the growing human toll of a conflict engulfing one of West Africa's most fragile states.

The rebel coalition driving the offensive unites two unlikely allies: Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an armed group affiliated with al-Qaida, and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a movement dominated by Tuareg separatists. The Tuareg are a historically nomadic people spread across Mali, Niger, Algeria, Libya and Burkina Faso, who have waged an armed struggle for decades against political and economic marginalisation. In late April, the coalition launched a sweeping offensive, seizing Kidal — a strategically and symbolically critical city in Mali's vast north that the junta had recaptured only three years ago — and striking targets as far south as Bamako, the capital. Mali's defence minister, Sadio Camara, was killed in a suicide car bomb attack on his residence, and the head of military intelligence was also killed. Rebels also struck Mali's international airport and targeted the home of junta leader Assimi Goïta, who came to power following coups in 2020 and 2021.

Despite the presence of between 2,000 and 2,500 Russian mercenaries — known as the Africa Corps, first deployed to Mali by Moscow in 2021 — government forces have so far failed to retake most lost territory. Analysts note that the Africa Corps are now consolidating around Bamako rather than mounting offensive operations, their primary function being regime protection. The capital itself is under tight curfew and a wave of arrests has been reported, while JNIM has enforced a blockade that analysts describe as "throttling" the city. A fuel blockade imposed by the group last year is said to have brought the junta close to collapse.

Hundreds of civilians have died in recent weeks, many in JNIM attacks on villages in the central Mopti region whose residents were accused of cooperating with Malian authorities. The junta's own military operations have added to the death toll, with airstrikes reported to have caused limited military impact — destroying a house near a market in Kidal and leaving a crater in the courtyard of the governor's office. The army claims to have neutralised several hundred combatants since April, though analysts remain sceptical about battlefield gains.

The crisis fits a wider pattern across the Sahel, the semi-arid belt stretching south of the Sahara Desert, where Islamic militancy has surged over two decades, fuelled by resource competition, sectarian tensions, an abundance of weapons from decades of conflict, and state failure to deliver basic services. Last year, nearly 70% of global terrorism deaths occurred in just five countries, three of them in the Sahel. UN Secretary-General António Guterres last week warned of a deepening humanitarian emergency marked by "growing violence against civilians, widespread displacement and growing food insecurity," calling for regional dialogue to address the crisis. Despite the severity of the situation, analysts note the junta has so far avoided an internal mutiny — a sign, however fragile, of a degree of institutional cohesion.