The fragile ceasefire between the United States and Iran has effectively collapsed following a series of military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway at the entrance to the Persian Gulf through which roughly 20% of the world's maritime oil and gas passes. Iran targeted commercial vessels attempting to transit the strait without Tehran's authorisation, prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian military sites. President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire "over", while Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi insisted Iran had "kept its word" and accused Washington of violating the agreement first.
The ceasefire in question was a 14-point memorandum of understanding signed in June, which was intended to halt hostilities "on all fronts", reopen the strait to commercial shipping, and lay the groundwork for talks on harder issues including Iran's nuclear programme and its regional alliances. The latest breakdown centres on who controls the strait. Iran has sought to assert sovereignty over the waterway — going so far as to establish a "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" — while the US, working alongside Oman, has attempted to route commercial ships through Omani waters outside Iranian control. Three vessels were struck while using this US-recommended route. Senior US officials said Tehran had privately acknowledged the attacks were a mistake, blaming an "errant" faction of hardliners within Iran seeking to undermine negotiations. One official was quoted as saying: "They came back to the table and said, 'We screwed up. We made a mistake. Let's keep talking.'" Despite Trump's declaration that the ceasefire was finished, both sides agreed to hold further talks in Oman on Saturday, led on the American side by Vice-President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner.
The broader context is one of unresolved strategic rivalry. The conflict — which began on 28 February with an Israeli strike that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, whose son Mojtaba has since assumed the role — has left both sides unwilling to concede ground. US intelligence assessments from May suggested Iran still retained around 70% of its pre-war missile stocks. Iran has also launched drone and missile strikes against US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan. Analysts note that despite suffering heavy losses, Iran has emerged from the conflict with enhanced regional leverage, having demonstrated both the will and capacity to control global energy chokepoints. Political science professor Robert Pape of the University of Chicago has argued that Trump "cannot bring himself to acknowledge the strategic defeat he has suffered" and that Iran has grown stronger as a result of the war.
Regional powers are manoeuvring carefully. Saudi Arabia and the US held telephone consultations to reaffirm cooperation on maritime security and regional stability. Qatar, which has established itself as a key mediator, sent a delegation to Tehran on Friday aimed at defusing tensions. Pakistan has also played a mediation role. The Gulf states, while unified in wanting stability, are divided in their approaches: the UAE has moved closer to the US-Israel axis, while Saudi Arabia has been playing a more ambivalent role, simultaneously encouraging American pressure on Tehran and pursuing diplomatic back-channels.
Why this matters: the Strait of Hormuz is a linchpin of the global energy supply, and sustained instability there drives up oil prices and creates economic shocks far beyond the region. The core dispute — whether Iran will have a recognised administrative role over the waterway — remains unresolved and sits at the heart of every negotiation. With US midterm elections approaching and neither side willing to be seen as backing down, analysts warn of what one expert has called an "escalation trap", in which each limited provocation triggers a limited response, gradually pulling both countries toward a wider conflict neither may want but both may stumble into.