From motorcycle taxi drivers in Nairobi to factory workers in Asia, the economic fallout from the war on Iran — which began on 28 February — is being felt across two continents, as surging oil prices, disrupted supply chains and weakening currencies compound existing vulnerabilities for millions of people.

The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the broader oil market and one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints, has been severely disrupted since the conflict began. Goldman Sachs estimates that the combined effect of the blockade and attacks on regional energy infrastructure has reduced global oil output by 14.5 million barrels per day — a 57 percent decline — which the International Energy Agency has described as the most severe oil supply shock in history. Asian economies have been particularly hard hit, given their deep dependence on Gulf petroleum products. Governments across the region are rationing fuel, reintroducing subsidies, and drawing down foreign reserves, even as dollar-priced food, fertiliser and debt become more expensive.

In Africa, the picture is sharply divided. Oil-exporting nations like Nigeria have recorded significant windfalls: Nigerian Bonny Light crude has risen 66 percent since the war began, to around $116.84 per barrel, delivering an estimated $4 billion windfall to Nigerian oil companies. The Democratic Republic of Congo is also benefitting from surging demand for critical minerals needed to replace military hardware destroyed in the conflict. But for oil-importing nations, the pain is acute. In Kenya, the price of diesel has risen 24 percent since the war began, to roughly $1.60 per litre. Eric Wainaina, a motorcycle taxi driver in Nairobi, has seen his daily riding distance halved and his customer numbers fall from up to 30 a day to fewer than 10, as passengers can no longer afford fares. Kenya may seek a $600 million World Bank loan to buffer the shock, according to Bloomberg. Sierra Leone, the Central African Republic and South Sudan are among those flagged by the IMF as facing the most acute pressures.

The IMF, in its latest outlook for sub-Saharan Africa titled 'Hard-Won Gains Under Pressure', warns that regional growth is expected to ease to 4.3 percent in 2026, with median inflation rising to 5 percent — a reversal of hard-won gains made in 2025, when the region recorded its fastest growth in a decade at 4.5 percent. The Fund cautions that a 20 percent rise in international food prices could push as many as 20 million people into moderate or severe food insecurity across the continent. This crisis is unfolding simultaneously with an unprecedented 16–28 percent cut in bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa — the world's largest aid-receiving region — potentially removing between $4 and $7 billion in funding compared to 2024 levels.

Analysts caution against viewing the crisis through a purely regional lens. "It's not an Africa story — it's a global story," said Amaka Anku, head of Eurasia Group's Africa practice. "The supply chain shock has been worse in Asia due to its dependence on the Gulf for petroleum products." Despite the hardship, experts say a wholesale geopolitical realignment is unlikely: many African nations remain tied to Washington through trade arrangements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants eligible sub-Saharan countries duty-free access to the US market, and bilateral health agreements. The IMF says it is providing financial support and working to build long-term resilience, but for those on the ground — like Wainaina, who fears his family may be forced to abandon Nairobi for rural land — the wait for relief is already too long.