The United States and Iran are on the verge of signing a framework peace agreement that could end months of conflict and reopen the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, though the two sides remain publicly at odds over exactly when that signing will take place. US President Donald Trump declared on Saturday that the deal was "scheduled to get signed" on Sunday, a claim echoed by Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who announced that Islamabad — which has played a central mediating role in the negotiations — was preparing for an "electronic signing" ceremony. Iran's foreign ministry, however, pushed back, with spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stating that Sunday was too soon but that a signing in the "coming days" could not be ruled out.
The emerging agreement, described by diplomats as a memorandum of understanding (MoU) rather than a final comprehensive settlement, would reportedly include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil passes — and the lifting of a US naval blockade on Iranian ports. It would also involve a phased release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets and a partial easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. Trump stated that no money would change hands directly and suggested that at a later stage the US would seek to remove and destroy Iran's nuclear material, either inside Iran or in the United States. Iran, for its part, insists on its right to maintain a peaceful nuclear programme.
The dispute over timing carries symbolic weight beyond logistics. Trump turns 80 on Sunday, and Iranian state-linked media noted pointedly that he appeared eager to tie the signing to his birthday as a personal political milestone. Iran's reluctance to accommodate that timeline reflects a broader battle over narrative and symbolism between the two sides. Practical factors also played a role: American officials confirmed that the virtual format was partly chosen because security protocols prevent the president and vice president from travelling abroad simultaneously, with Trump due to depart for a G7 summit in France on Monday.
Even as negotiations concluded their final stages, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz persisted. US forces shot down multiple Iranian drones heading toward the waterway, while explosions were reported at Iran's Sirik port and Qeshm Island. A tanker was also struck by an unknown projectile off the Omani coast, though its crew were reported safe. Senior figures from Qatar and Saudi Arabia have praised Pakistan's mediation efforts and expressed hope that the deal would bring lasting regional stability.
Analysts urge caution about treating the expected MoU as a definitive resolution. Experts at the Atlantic Council describe it as a "rough outline" of concepts, likely to be followed by a 60-day negotiating window addressing harder issues including Iran's missile programme and its network of regional allied groups. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the Vienna-based body responsible for nuclear inspections, has confirmed it stands ready to conduct verification once any agreement is formalised, with Director General Rafael Grossi stressing that independent monitoring would be central to any durable deal. Analysts at the Brookings Institution add that even a preliminary framework would unfold against a backdrop of increasingly fragmented global order, in which maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz are becoming tools of political leverage rather than reliably open arteries of trade.