Morocco's Authenticity and Modernity Party (PAM) has emerged as the largest force in the country's parliamentary elections, taking 97 of the 395 seats in the House of Representatives. However, the result falls well short of the 198 seats needed for an outright majority, leaving PAM to negotiate a coalition before a new government can be formed. Under Morocco's constitution, King Mohammed VI must appoint a prime minister from the party that wins the most seats.

PAM, founded in 2008 by Fouad Ali El Himma, a close associate of the king, has long been seen as a monarchist counterweight to the opposition Justice and Development Party (PJD), a moderate Islamist party that led the government for a decade before suffering a dramatic collapse to just 13 seats in the 2021 elections. This time, the PJD staged a significant comeback, quadrupling its representation to 54 seats. Despite this, a longstanding rivalry between the two parties makes a PAM-PJD coalition unlikely; the PJD has said it will remain in opposition. PAM is instead expected to turn to the Istiqlal party — a historic Moroccan nationalist party that finished third with 65 seats — and other partners to build a governing majority. PAM's current coalition partner, the National Rally of Independents (RNI), lost significant ground, falling from 102 seats to 66.

Coalition discussions, however, must formally wait. As PAM's national coordinator Fatima Zahra El Mansouri noted, the party will only turn to alliance-building after the king has appointed the next prime minister. El Mansouri herself — currently mayor of Marrakech and a cabinet minister — is among the frontrunners for the post, and would become Morocco's first female prime minister if chosen. Also mentioned is Fouzi Lekjaa, Morocco's budget minister and head of the national football federation.

Voter disengagement cast a long shadow over the result. Turnout stood at just 38 percent of Morocco's 15.8 million registered voters — the second lowest since King Mohammed VI came to the throne in 1999, and sharply down from around 51 percent in 2021. Analysts link the decline to widespread frustration among young Moroccans over unemployment, healthcare, housing and education, compounded by deadly mass crossing attempts into Ceuta, Spain's North African enclave, in July. Young people aged 18 to 24 accounted for just 4 percent of registered voters.

The stakes for the incoming government are high. Morocco is co-hosting the 2030 FIFA World Cup alongside Spain and Portugal, requiring the management of billions of dollars in infrastructure investment. Relations with Spain have also been complicated by the Ceuta migration crisis, though El Mansouri expressed optimism that bilateral ties would stabilise after both countries' election seasons. Beyond football and diplomacy, the new administration will face the urgent domestic challenge of restoring public trust and addressing the economic pressures that have driven so many Moroccan voters — and migrants — to disengage from the political process.