Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply following attacks on tankers, with vessel-tracking data showing the waterway nearly empty over the weekend compared to normal pre-war levels. The disruption comes as indirect talks between the United States and Iran remain stalled, and as Iranian commanders have taken an increasingly assertive posture over access to the strategically vital strait.

Tracking data from analytics firm Kpler recorded just five cargo vessels passing through the strait on Saturday, and none at all on Sunday — compared with 31 vessels during the previous weekend. The near-standstill followed attacks last week on three vessels operated by ADNOC, Abu Dhabi's state energy company, as they transited the strait. The United States said it could maintain its naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. While some vessels may have passed undetected with their transponders switched off, the numbers remain far below the pre-war figure of more than 130 vessels per day transiting the passage.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, carried roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments before the conflict began. Among the few vessels that did transit on Saturday was an empty supertanker with its automatic identification system disabled, and a large Indian-flagged gas carrier that used the Iranian-side shipping lane. Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said on Saturday that restoring normal shipping would require Washington to meet Tehran's conditions for the strait, which reportedly include war reparations. Iran has set out six conditions for reopening the waterway.

The war in the Middle East began on 28 February when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran. A ceasefire reached in April led to a memorandum of understanding and peace talks in June, but hostilities subsequently resumed. Since then, intermittent clashes have been concentrated in southern Iran and around the Strait of Hormuz. Seventeen American military personnel have been killed since the war began, all outside Iranian territory, in countries including Jordan and Iraq.

At the Bab al-Mandab strait — the narrow chokepoint off the coast of Yemen linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden — the Houthi movement, which controls much of northern Yemen, declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on 20 July. Kpler data showed 49 cargo vessels transited Bab al-Mandab over the weekend, down from 55 the week before, with no Saudi oil shipments recorded. Indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States are continuing through intermediaries, but observers see little sign of a diplomatic breakthrough in the near term.