Iran has declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the United States lifts its blockade of Iranian ports, with no new round of direct talks between the two countries scheduled. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh confirmed on Sunday that no date has been set for face-to-face negotiations, criticising Washington for clinging to what he called "maximalist" demands. The standoff shows little sign of easing, leaving global energy markets in a deepening crisis.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula that serves as the primary maritime exit for Gulf oil and gas exports, has been almost entirely blocked to tanker traffic since the United States and Israel began bombing Iran on 28 February. Before the conflict, roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies passed through the strait each day. The near-total halt to that flow is now rippling through energy systems far beyond the Middle East.

The most pressing near-term concern is jet fuel. Airlines and airport operators across Europe and Asia, both of which are heavily dependent on Gulf oil and its refined products, are warning that supplies could fall to critical levels within weeks. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has cautioned that if European markets cannot secure more than half of their lost Middle East volumes, stocks could hit a dangerously low 23-day threshold by June. The head of the IEA, Fatih Birol, has suggested shortages could begin as early as May. Airports Council International Europe has written to the European Commission warning of potential shortfalls at the start of that month if tankers do not resume Hormuz transits imminently.

The picture is uneven across countries and carriers. Japan is heavily import-dependent but has built significant fuel reserves. Within Europe, Austria, Bulgaria and Poland hold comfortable stocks, while Britain, Iceland and the Netherlands are in a far more exposed position. Energy analysts note that smaller, inland airports will feel pressure sooner than major hubs, and the likely outcome is partial flight cancellations at certain airlines rather than a full grounding of fleets. TotalEnergies chief executive Patrick Pouyanne has warned that if the Gulf blockade extends beyond three months, the company will be unable to supply all of its customers with products including jet fuel.

With diplomacy stalled and no diplomatic off-ramp yet visible, energy companies and governments face difficult decisions about rationing, alternative sourcing and emergency reserves. The European Commission acknowledged this week that while no shortages have materialised yet, "supply issues could occur in the near future in particular for jet fuels" — a rare official admission that the crisis is moving from financial concern to operational reality.