The World Bank has lowered its economic growth forecast for Kenya to 4.3% this year, citing the ripple effects of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which has pushed up global energy prices and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz (a critical waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global oil markets). The bank warns that higher fuel costs are raising production expenses, dampening investment, and straining household finances, with up to 2.4 million more Kenyans potentially pushed into poverty as a result. Despite some cushioning from strong agricultural output, lower interest rates, and a stable currency, the World Bank also flagged political uncertainty ahead of Kenya's 2027 general election as a risk to investment and reform momentum — though it separately approved $1.25 billion in financing to support the country's budget and economic reform programme.