Ethiopian government forces have taken the town of Alamata in the northern region of Tigray, in what Dutch broadcaster NOS described as the government's first victory since fighting flared a week earlier. Footage shows tanks and armoured vehicles in the streets after several days of drone strikes. Alamata is an important transport and supply hub south of the regional capital Mekelle, and some residents reportedly welcomed the troops. Pro-government forces claimed on September 28 to have entered the town; the extent of fighting elsewhere is hard to verify because communications are largely down.

The offensive began on September 23, when forces of the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) moved against federal positions, including airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire. The move came days after seven armed groups announced the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Alliance for Survival, which aims to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, whom they accuse of ruling as a dictator. The alliance includes the TPLF, the Oromo Liberation Army and Fano militias from the Amhara region, some of which fought one another in the past. Mekelle lies about 120 kilometres north of Alamata, so the government's advance could point towards the regional capital, which the rebels had seized.

The fighting is taking a heavy toll on civilians. Médecins Sans Frontières reports overwhelmed hospitals: 420 wounded were treated in Korem and Alamata in one week, and Shire hospital received more than 300 in a single day. Mekelle's hospital admitted 44 civilians, 33 of them children, hurt by artillery fire. Aid groups say around 150,000 people have fled, and in the Afar region displaced people are short of basic supplies. A humanitarian convoy in Tigray was bombed on September 20, with suspicion falling on government drones. Care warns that delivering food and medical aid is getting harder, just as Ethiopia faces the threat of extreme drought linked to El Niño.

Regional dimensions are also growing. Addis Ababa accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the Tigrayan rebels; Eritrea and Sudan firmly deny it. Eritrea fought alongside Ethiopia in the 2020–2022 war, when it was accused of atrocities against Tigrayan civilians, but relations soured over Ethiopian talk of gaining access to the Red Sea via the Eritrean port of Assab. Researchers quoted by RFI say Eritrea appears to be a rear base for Tigrayan forces, though material support is unproven. Ethiopia, a landlocked country of over 130 million people, has invested heavily in its army, aircraft and drones.

Analysts say the crisis stems from the 2022 Pretoria agreement, which halted a war that may have killed up to 600,000 people but never produced a full political settlement. Disarmament, the withdrawal of non-federal forces and Tigray's political representation remained incomplete, and the TPLF was deregistered and Tigray excluded from June 2026 elections. Experts warn the conflict could merge with Sudan's civil war or draw in Eritrea. The African Union has called for de-escalation, while a US envoy has threatened further sanctions on the TPLF and alliance leaders.