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Philippines·Trade & Economy

Philippines reaches upper-middle income status after nearly four decades, but economists urge caution

Friday, 3 July 2026, 06:36 · 1 min read

The World Bank officially reclassified the Philippines as an upper-middle income country on July 1, after the country's gross national income per capita reached $4,850 — clearing the new threshold of $4,636 — ending a stretch of nearly four decades in the lower-middle income category. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hailed the milestone as a "vote of confidence" in the country's future, though analysts note the classification reflects 2025 income data and does not capture the economy's current slowdown, which has seen growth fall to 2.8% in early 2026 amid fiscal pressures and inflation. Economists caution that the label masks deep inequality, stagnant real wages, and a rising debt-to-GDP ratio of 65%, while the upgrade may also gradually reduce the Philippines' access to concessional loans — making future infrastructure borrowing more expensive at a critical time for development.

Sources
Rappler[In This Economy] The Philippines is upper-middle income at last. But what does it mean? ↗︎
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