Sweden's Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST) said on Monday that Russia has been manipulating its economic statistics to conceal the true state of its economy during the ongoing invasion of Ukraine, presenting figures that make the country appear more resilient than it actually is. MUST chief Thomas Nilsson said Russia's real inflation rate is likely closer to its central bank's key interest rate of 21% than to the official estimate of around 5.86%, and that the country faces a budget deficit so severe it would require oil prices above $100 per barrel for a full year to address. Nilsson warned that Russia's economy is heading toward either a long-term recession or a sudden shock, adding that while economic strain and sanctions limit Moscow's military capacity, the decision to continue the war remains a political rather than an economic one.