Nigerian President Bola Tinubu announced on Friday that more than 13,000 "terrorists" had been killed by the military over the past year, and that deaths from the country's jihadist insurgency had fallen by 81 percent since he assumed office in 2023. The declaration came during a televised address on Democracy Day — a public holiday marking Nigeria's return to civilian rule in 1999 — and was accompanied by the claim that over 124,000 fighters and their dependents had surrendered their weapons through Operation Safe Corridor, a government deradicalisation programme centred in Borno State in the country's northeast.

Analysts, however, have urged caution about the figures. An Abuja-based expert described the statistics as "not very credible", noting that those counted as "terrorists" may include civilians caught in the crossfire. The same analyst pointed out that armed groups have in fact proliferated since Tinubu took power in 2023, and that casualty numbers have risen rather than fallen. While acknowledging that the government has succeeded in eliminating a number of jihadist and non-ideological militant leaders, the expert cautioned that such operations have "only a limited impact" as long as recruitment continues and these groups retain access to financing.

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation, has been battling a complex web of security crises for over a decade and a half. The jihadist insurgency, which began in 2009 with an uprising by Boko Haram in the northeast, has since spawned multiple armed factions, killed tens of thousands, and displaced millions. The picture is further complicated by so-called "bandit" gangs — criminal rather than ideological in motivation — rampant kidnappings for ransom across the northwest and central regions, violent clashes between farming and herding communities, and secessionist unrest in the southeast. The insecurity is now edging toward the historically calmer southwest: in May, more than 40 students and teachers were abducted from schools in Oyo State.

The timing of Tinubu's address was notable. With general elections scheduled for January 2027, security has become a defining issue for voters. As the president touted his record, angry citizens held protests in Lagos and Abuja, denouncing what they described as a worsening economic and security environment. The contrast between the government's upbeat assessment and public frustration on the streets underscores the difficulty of translating military operations into lasting stability for ordinary Nigerians.