The Strait of Hormuz remains navigable for commercial ships that follow a new set of Iranian transit procedures, Iran's foreign ministry confirmed on Friday, pushing back against reports that the waterway had been closed again. The clarification came after a tense few hours during which warnings shots were reportedly fired in the area and vessels received no radio response when asking whether the passage was indeed open. Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) later stated that ships submitting "compliant transit requests" at least 48 hours before arrival would be permitted to transit the strait during a 60-day provisional period — and would not be charged fees during that window.
The strait, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman connecting the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, carries roughly 20% of the world's oil and gas supply. It was effectively closed in late February when conflict broke out, stranding an estimated 500 tankers in the Gulf. A memorandum of understanding signed between the United States and Iran on 18 June 2026 established the framework for reopening the route, but the broader peace process suffered a setback on Friday when US Vice President J.D. Vance cancelled his planned travel to the Swiss resort of Bürgenstock, where implementation talks had been scheduled. Iran had indicated it would only attend after the US demonstrated progress on implementing the provisional agreement. Switzerland confirmed the postponement.
Even if diplomacy proceeds smoothly, the physical restoration of normal shipping will take considerable time. According to Intertanko, the international association of independent tanker owners, approximately 80 mines laid by Iran in the traffic separation scheme — the central navigational corridor used by ships since 1968 — remain in place, rendering the main route effectively impassable. Vessels currently face the riskier alternative of hugging the Omani coastline, which carries dangers of running aground, collision, and continued electronic signal jamming that has disrupted ships' navigation and positioning systems. "This is like a highway where the road in the middle is closed and you are using the hard shoulder," said Phil Belcher, marine director at Intertanko.
Some progress is visible: 25 commercial vessels crossed the strait on Thursday, according to maritime data firms Kpler and AXSMarine — the highest single-day figure since 18 April, and five times the daily average recorded in the first ten days of June. Yet that figure remains far short of the pre-war average of roughly 130 to 145 ships per day. Major carriers including Hapag-Lloyd and Mitsui OSK Lines said they were waiting for concrete safety guarantees before resuming normal operations. "What will have to be established is not just a simple agreement between the countries involved, but one that translates into real conditions in the strait," said Jotaro Tamura, chief executive of Mitsui OSK Lines.
Longer-term questions are also clouding the outlook. Iran has signalled it intends to introduce maritime fees after the 60-day grace period expires, a move that shipping companies and the US government have rejected as illegal under international law. Analysts warn such a precedent could ripple across other contested maritime corridors globally. Meanwhile, Israel and Lebanon exchanged strikes overnight into Friday, adding to regional uncertainty. Oil markets reflected the anxiety: Brent crude fluctuated sharply before settling at around $80.38 per barrel. As one industry analyst put it, even if the ceasefire holds, roughly 10% of global container shipping capacity remains affected — disruption of that scale "cannot be reversed overnight."