Brazil has pledged retaliatory measures after Washington confirmed it will impose 25% tariffs on a range of Brazilian imports, with the levies set to take effect on 22 July. The announcement from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) cited what it called Brazil's "unreasonable acts, policies, and practices" that had "harmed US commerce." Once the tariffs come into force, Brazil — which has historically run a trade deficit with the United States — will become the second most heavily tariffed country by Washington after China.

Brazil's presidential office flatly rejected the justifications offered by Washington, calling the tariffs "a regrettable milestone" in the two countries' relationship and describing them as the product of political pressure rather than legitimate trade concerns. The Brazilian government said it had repeatedly submitted data refuting the allegations, and pledged to "immediately begin the procedures" under its Reciprocity Law — a measure passed by the Brazilian parliament last year that authorises the government to adopt countermeasures against specific countries. Brasília also dismissed two of the USTR's key claims: that Brazil's Pix instant payment system — a free, state-backed digital payments network — unfairly harms US credit card companies, and that illegal deforestation gives Brazilian farmers a competitive advantage. Lula's office described the environmental charge as "absurd," pointing out that deforestation had surged under his predecessor and that his government had taken decisive action to reduce it since taking office in 2023.

The tariff decision is deeply entangled with Brazilian domestic politics, with October's presidential election less than three months away. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is seeking re-election and will face Flávio Bolsonaro, a far-right senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted of attempting to overturn the 2022 election he lost to Lula. Lula's office accused the Bolsonaro family of actively collaborating with Washington to construct a damaging narrative, calling them "false patriots" driven by electoral objectives. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who held meetings with Bolsonaro's sons in Washington, argued that Lula had "not negotiated with the US in good faith" and had prioritised his own interests over a deal for the Brazilian people.

The move carries significant political risks for all sides. Analysts note that a previous round of US tariffs, most of which were later struck down by the US Supreme Court, actually boosted Lula's popularity, with polls consistently showing that more than half of Brazilians blame the Bolsonaro family for the trade dispute. Flávio Bolsonaro himself acknowledged the danger, having asked Washington last week to abandon the tariffs precisely because they could benefit his rival electorally — a request the USTR ignored. Brazil is also the first country to be targeted under Washington's revised legal strategy, which now relies on Section 301 of US trade law following the Supreme Court's earlier rulings against broader tariff measures. With Brazil having steadily diversified its trade relationships over the past year, reducing its economic exposure to the United States, experts warn that the Trump administration's gamble may not deliver its intended effect.