More than 30 European heads of state and government, Canada's prime minister, NATO's secretary general, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy gathered in Yerevan this week for two historic summits that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago. On Monday, Armenia hosted the European Political Community (EPC) — a forum of over 48 nations created in 2022 that brings together EU members and partner countries including the UK, Turkey, Norway and Serbia — followed on Tuesday by the first-ever bilateral EU-Armenia summit. Together, the events represent a dramatic geopolitical pivot for a country of fewer than three million people that has long been considered Russia's closest ally in the South Caucasus.
The turning point came in 2023, when Azerbaijan launched a swift military operation to complete its takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, expelling more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians. Russia, which had peacekeepers stationed there, stood aside. The Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) also failed to respond to earlier Azerbaijani incursions into Armenian territory. Disillusioned, Armenia suspended its CSTO membership in 2024 and, in early 2025, its parliament passed a law formally declaring the intention to apply for EU membership. The EU, for its part, had brokered a border-recognition deal with Azerbaijan and deployed a civilian monitoring mission along Armenia's border — a tangible presence that shifted public opinion. When EU enlargement commissioner Marta Kos visited in March, she declared that "Armenia and the EU have never been closer."
Canada's attendance at the EPC marks a first: it is the inaugural participation of a non-European nation at such a summit. Prime Minister Mark Carney, seeking to rebuild trade and diplomatic networks following disruptions caused by US tariff policy under Donald Trump, joined leaders including French President Emmanuel Macron — the chief champion of the EPC format — and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer. Macron offered a pointed assessment of the occasion: "Eight years ago, this country was seen by a lot of countries around the table as a sort of de facto satellite of Russia." Zelenskyy's visit was particularly symbolic; it was his first trip to Armenia since taking office in 2019 and the first Ukrainian presidential visit in 24 years, prompting fierce criticism from Russian state media and military bloggers.
Moscow has made no secret of its displeasure. In April, President Vladimir Putin summoned Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to the Kremlin and bluntly warned that membership of the EU customs union was incompatible with Armenia's existing participation in Russia's Eurasian Economic Union. Putin also underlined Armenia's dependence on subsidised Russian gas — sold at $177.50 per 1,000 cubic metres, compared to around $600 in Europe. Days before the summit, Russia banned imports of Armenian mineral water, a move analysts described as economic coercion. Cybersecurity researchers documented a surge in coordinated Telegram posts warning that the summits represented Armenia's "point of no return" and that Russia would retaliate.
Despite the historic symbolism, Armenia's path forward is fraught with uncertainty. The EU has offered visa liberalisation and an extended civilian mission to counter disinformation and cyberattacks ahead of Armenian parliamentary elections in June, but there is no firm timeline for membership, no defence guarantees, and no concrete plan to replace Russian energy supplies. A fragile peace process with Azerbaijan — which, with US support, produced an initialled agreement in Washington last August — also hangs in the balance: Baku's parliament suspended ties with the European Parliament last week over a resolution calling for the return of displaced Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. As one regional analyst noted, European leaders must balance visible solidarity with Yerevan against the broader task of building stable, lasting institutions in the South Caucasus.