The Parti Québécois (PQ), which seeks independence for Quebec from Canada, won the most seats in Monday's provincial election, making its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the province's next premier. Quebec is Canada's largest French-speaking province, with about nine million people. Early reports suggested the PQ may have fallen short of a majority in the 127-seat National Assembly, which requires 64 seats. If so, it would lead a minority government and depend on opposition support to pass major legislation and survive confidence votes.
St-Pierre Plamondon, a 49-year-old lawyer known by his initials PSPP, has promised a third referendum on independence during his first term. He has said it will not happen while US President Donald Trump is in office, which means not before January 2029. He argues that a decision on Quebec's future needs "an informed and calm debate" that should not be "hijacked by the theatrics of an unpredictable president." Quebec voted against leaving Canada in 1980 and again in 1995, when the result was extremely close, with 50.58 percent choosing to stay. Supporters at the PQ's victory party in Montreal chanted "Le Québec, un pays" (Quebec, a country).
The result is a sharp recovery for a party that won only three seats in 2022 and last governed from 2012 to 2014. It ends eight years in power for the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ), a centre-right nationalist party that defended Quebec's language and identity but not independence. Outgoing Premier Christine Fréchette lost her own seat in Trois-Rivières and pledged to work on the transition. The Liberals finished second and the Conservatives gained seats. Both have said they would never back a referendum, which limits what the PQ can do without a majority.
Analysts caution against reading the result as a surge in separatism. Polls put support for independence at around 30 percent. Experts point to voter fatigue with the CAQ, frustration over the cost of living and health care, and a lasting wish to protect the French language. Some voters are uneasy, however. Students interviewed by AFP voiced concern about economic and security vulnerability and about the PQ's backing for immigration cuts, especially for non-French speakers.
The outcome still poses a test for Prime Minister Mark Carney, who is popular in Quebec but faces a trade war with the United States. Quebec is among the provinces hit hardest by new US tariffs. Another independence-related vote is due in oil-rich Alberta in about two weeks. Carney congratulated St-Pierre Plamondon, saying a stronger Quebec is core to building a stronger Canada.
Friction with Ottawa may come sooner than any referendum. St-Pierre Plamondon has described the relationship as a "balance of power" and vowed to resist federally mandated immigration increases. He also wants to "abolish the monarchy in Quebec" by cutting funding for the lieutenant-governor, King Charles III's representative in the province, and redirecting the money to tackle homelessness. The role is enshrined in Canada's constitution and includes giving royal assent to provincial laws, so the plan would likely face legal challenges. He says he is ready for that fight. A 2025 Léger poll found 87 percent of Quebecers feel no attachment to the monarchy.