A sixty-day window for US-Iran negotiations collapsed on Monday as the memorandum of understanding signed in June expired without a single round of formal talks having taken place, leaving the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz unresolved and both sides trading blame for the failure.

The memorandum, signed on 18 June in Islamabad, had called for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes — and to reaffirm its commitment not to develop nuclear weapons, while the United States undertook to lift its naval blockade and ease sanctions. The sixty-day window was intended to allow negotiators to work out a lasting settlement. Instead, renewed hostilities erupted on 7 July when Iran attacked commercial shipping in the strait, including a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker, accusing Washington of having already violated the agreement. Multiple waves of US strikes on Iranian military targets followed. Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that because of those "blatant and widespread violations" by the US, the deadline had become entirely irrelevant. He also disputed the framing, saying there was "no such thing as a 60-day deadline" in the text itself, and that Iran never formulates policy under pressure or ultimatums. President Donald Trump, for his part, ruled out renewing the memorandum and told reporters there was no set timetable, adding: "They want to make a deal, but they are not going to make the kind of deal I consider necessary."

The fundamental sticking point has been control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman that separates Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. Iran has made clear it intends to retain authority over shipping traffic through the strait as a form of strategic leverage, with senior officials stating it "will only be closed and opened under Iran's command." Meanwhile, the US military has been redirecting commercial vessels away from Iranian ports, and US Central Command says it has redirected 55 ships, disabled three, and boarded two since reimposing the blockade on 14 July. Oman, which sits on the strait's southern shore and has been mediating separately between Iran and its Gulf neighbours, was threatened by Trump on Monday with air strikes if it obstructs any future agreement — a warning he declined to soften when pressed.

Analysts offer differing views on the path forward. Some argue the memorandum was fatally undermined by ambiguity over how shipping traffic would be administered during the transitional period, and that a lack of mutual goodwill on both sides doomed it from the start. Others contend the US negotiators underestimated the depth of Iran's commitment to controlling the strait, noting that Iranian Revolutionary Guard publications at the time of signing left no room for doubt about Tehran's position. With formal negotiations having stalled, Trump appears to be shifting strategy toward intensified economic pressure — sanctions, a naval blockade, and financial isolation — in hopes of either forcing Iran back to the table or weakening the government's hold on power. Analysts caution this approach could take a very long time to produce results, if it does at all, given the resilience the Iranian leadership has shown under pressure.

The war, which began on 28 February with US-Israeli strikes on Iran, has already spread beyond the strait. Houthi rebels in Yemen have imposed a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a second major chokepoint in global energy shipping. US envoy Jared Kushner on Monday expressed hope that Hamas disarmament could begin within thirty days following a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, signalling that the broader regional conflict remains deeply intertwined with the US-Iran confrontation. A Reuters poll published Monday put Trump's approval rating at 33%, the lowest of his second term.