A rapidly intensifying El Niño weather system could push nearly 49 to 50 million additional people into acute hunger by the end of next year, the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Wednesday. Scientists put the probability of an exceptionally strong El Niño event at 81 percent, with Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures at their warmest levels since at least 1982 — and potentially the highest since 1950. Some observers are already calling it a "super El Niño," though the term carries no official scientific designation.
El Niño is a periodic warming of surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather patterns across the globe, typically bringing drought to southern Africa, delayed or uneven monsoons to parts of Asia, and erratic rainfall to Central and South America and the Caribbean. Based on an analysis of 45 countries already classified as vulnerable, the WFP estimates that the total number of people facing acute food insecurity — defined as hunger falling just short of famine conditions — could rise by roughly 22 percent, from 225 million to approximately 274 million. Central America could see an 83 percent increase in food-insecure people, while southern Africa could see a rise of nearly 75 percent. South America, the Caribbean, and southern Africa could each see more than 12 million additional people fall into crisis. South and Southeast Asia also face significant risks from drought and disrupted monsoons.
The severity of the crisis is compounded by several converging pressures. Conflict in the Middle East has already pushed food prices upward, and any weather-related crop failures could drive them higher still. While global food markets entered this El Niño period in a relatively stable position — bolstered by an unusually strong harvest in 2025 — the WFP cautioned that these buffers will erode. In southern Africa, where the main growing season runs from October through March 2027, the worst hunger impacts are expected during the lean season of 2027 to 2028, as stored food supplies are gradually exhausted.
Adding to concerns, funding cuts from US and European donors in 2025 have weakened the data infrastructure needed to monitor emerging crises. The WFP conducted approximately 1.1 million household surveys in 2024 but only around 800,000 in 2025, with numbers falling further this year. "At a time when you have a risk like an El Niño, it is important to have high-frequency data collection," said Jean-Martin Bauer, the WFP's director of food security, warning that gaps in monitoring could delay detection of fast-developing emergencies.
The WFP says it has already scaled up anticipatory action programmes in 18 countries, reaching more than 1.3 million people with cash and other assistance, and has budgeted at least $80 million for early warning and relief efforts. Officials point to the 2015–16 El Niño, when between 60 and 100 million people were pushed into acute food insecurity, as a benchmark — and express cautious hope that earlier intervention could limit the damage this time, even if the current event proves more severe. Governments and humanitarian partners, the agency stressed, must act now before the window for preventive action closes.