Brazilians vote on Sunday in a closely fought first round of a presidential election dominated by two rivals: incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, 80, and right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Polls published on Saturday show Lula slightly ahead, but neither man is expected to win outright. If no candidate takes more than 50% of valid votes, which exclude blank and spoiled ballots, the top two will meet in a runoff on October 25.
The final surveys point to a tight contest. CNT/MDA gave Lula 47.8% of valid votes to Bolsonaro's 42.1%, Datafolha 45% to 42%, and Quaest 46% to 45%. In a runoff, Datafolha has Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46%, while Quaest puts Bolsonaro ahead, 44% to 42%. That is far closer than 2022, when Lula beat the elder Bolsonaro by less than two percentage points. Analysts say the vote is largely settled, with perhaps 15 to 20% of the electorate still open to persuasion. Abstention, despite compulsory voting, may also matter: it reached about 21% in the 2022 first round, and analysts warn a higher figure would hurt Lula most, because his support is concentrated among lower-income voters.
Both men closed their campaigns on Saturday. Lula led a march through São Paulo, Brazil's economic heartland, calling the vote a choice between "democracy and barbarism" and presenting the election as a test of national sovereignty. Bolsonaro led a motorcycle caravan in São Paulo state, echoing his father's style, before a rally in Rio de Janeiro. Each claimed they could win in the first round, and each courted voters wary of polarisation.
The United States is a major theme. Washington imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods last year, citing among other reasons the trial of Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally of President Donald Trump. Further tariffs followed this year, along with a terrorist designation for Brazil's largest drug-trafficking gangs. Trump has not formally endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro but says he is watching the vote "very closely". Lula's supporters see meddling; some Bolsonaro backers, frustrated by the cost of living, say they would welcome pressure if it forced change. Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting to overturn his 2022 defeat, and his son has pledged to seek his release. He has also echoed unsubstantiated claims about electronic voting, which analysts say could lay the groundwork for contesting a loss.
The campaign has been bitter. Flávio Bolsonaro is under investigation over financing of "Dark Horse", a biopic about his father funded by jailed banker Daniel Vorcaro, who is at the centre of a major financial scandal that has also caused a row at the Supreme Court. The only planned debate was cancelled.
The result matters beyond Brazil. Right-wing candidates have won every Latin American presidential election since the start of 2025, according to Folha de S.Paulo, leaving the left governing only Brazil, Uruguay, Mexico and Guatemala. Progressive voices across the region are watching closely. Nearly 160 million registered voters will also elect all 27 governors, the full lower house and two thirds of the Senate.