The United Nations has issued one of its starkest climate warnings in recent memory, declaring that the current El Niño weather phenomenon is intensifying at an unprecedented pace and could become the most powerful on record. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday that there is a "near 100%" probability the event will persist through February 2027 — the first time the agency has issued such an unequivocal forecast in its 50-year history. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes," describing the planet as being in a "danger zone of extreme weather" and comparing the combined effects of El Niño and human-caused climate change to "pouring fuel on the fire of a warming world."
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that develops in the Pacific Ocean when trade winds weaken or reverse, allowing warm water to spread eastward along the equator and releasing heat into the atmosphere. It typically occurs every two to seven years, lasts nine to twelve months and peaks between November and February. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have already surged more than 2°C above average in recent weeks, with subsurface temperatures in some areas exceeding normal values by more than 8°C — a level scientists describe as exceptional. The Met Office, the United Kingdom's national weather service, says temperatures could spike by 3°C above the baseline when the event fully peaks in late 2026 or early 2027. "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts," said Adam Scaife, the Met Office's head of long-range forecasting.
The phenomenon's effects are already being felt across multiple continents. Indonesia is battling wildfires that have scorched more than 107,000 hectares of land, while China has recorded seven typhoons making landfall so far this year. Drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across much of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern South America, increasing wildfire and drought risks. Meanwhile, eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern United States face elevated flooding risks from above-average rainfall. In southern Africa, Mozambique, Malawi and Madagascar have been identified by the UN's Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) as the three most at-risk countries in the region. In Mozambique — a long, narrow country of roughly 3,000 kilometres stretching along Africa's southeastern coast — the central and southern regions face severe drought while the north is threatened by extreme flooding, with the short rainy season between October and December forecast to be the weakest since 1950. The government has already identified 52 districts at risk of water shortages; some 3.5 million people in the country are currently experiencing acute food insecurity.
Scientists emphasise that the event is unfolding on a planet already warmed by decades of greenhouse gas emissions, which amplifies its dangers far beyond those of previous El Niño cycles. "El Niño can bring devastating climate extremes on its own, but it's unfolding today on a much warmer planet," said Stephanie Roe, lead climate scientist at the World Wildlife Fund. Economists at Citigroup have estimated that a super El Niño could inflict up to $7 trillion in global economic losses over five years. The World Food Programme warns that acute hunger could affect 274 million people by the end of 2027 — 49 million more than today — as crop failures ripple through global supply chains. Outbreaks of malaria and dengue fever are also a concern, particularly in regions with fragile health systems.
The WMO says it has undertaken an unprecedented mobilisation of national meteorological and hydrological services to deliver forecasts and early warnings as widely as possible. Countries including Peru, which is historically among the most vulnerable to El Niño due to its location on the eastern Pacific coast, are strengthening early warning systems and pre-positioning medical resources. The US has deployed the hospital ship USNS Comfort to the Peruvian coast in anticipation of the event's peak. Australia has introduced early warning systems for marine crises, as El Niño-linked heatwaves threaten to devastate ecosystems from the Great Barrier Reef to the fisheries of southern Australia. Despite these preparations, experts caution that structural vulnerabilities — inadequate housing, fragile water systems and underfunded healthcare — will determine how severely communities are affected. Met Office climate scientist Nick Dunstone warned of one further consequence: "2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the hottest year on record."