The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is dealing a dual blow to India's labour market, forcing hundreds of thousands of Gulf-based workers to return home while simultaneously strangling demand for Indian manufactured exports such as leather goods and glassware. Of the roughly 19 million Indians working overseas, approximately 9 million are based in Gulf states, and a foreign ministry official confirmed that around 1.1 million Indians had returned from the region between late February and the end of April; recruiters report placement rates have collapsed, with some placing just one or two candidates a month compared with five to ten previously. The strain is felt acutely in industrial centres like Kanpur (a manufacturing hub in Uttar Pradesh, India's most populous state), where leather factories are running at half capacity, and in Kerala, whose local economy has long depended heavily on Gulf remittances — officials there warn that prolonged conflict could trigger large-scale repatriation and further stress an already tight job market.