A handful of vessels have begun moving through the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of a framework agreement between the United States and Iran, but hundreds of ships remain stranded in the Gulf as significant obstacles — security threats, mines, and unresolved questions over who will manage the waterway — continue to deter normal traffic.
President Donald Trump declared on Sunday that the strait had been reopened and called on "ships of the world" to "start their engines," but analysis of ship-tracking data from MarineTraffic tells a more cautious story. As of Tuesday, more than 250 tankers and 330 cargo vessels were inside the Gulf, with around 75 percent of tankers stationary. Just seven vessels appear to have transited the strait since the deal was announced. Iranian media confirmed that a small number of oil tankers and cargo ships had passed through, but experts say a broader resumption of traffic is unlikely in the near term. "What we've been seeing is still very much a wait-and-see mentality. No one really wants to be the first to take that risk," said Naveen Das, a senior oil analyst at trade analytics firm Kpler.
Three interlocking problems explain the hesitation. First, security remains a serious concern: Iran has fired on ships attempting to transit without its permission, and the US naval blockade — which Trump initially said was being lifted immediately — will remain in place until the agreement is formally signed in Switzerland on Friday. Second, mine clearance poses a major logistical challenge. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate committee that Iran had "mined large segments" of the strait, and experts estimate it could take anywhere from 30 days to six months to clear the waterway. The UK and France have dispatched naval vessels to assist, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged his country would play its "full part" in reopening the route. Third, the question of tolls and management remains deeply contested. Iran has established a body it calls the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" and signalled it intends to charge maritime service fees; Oman has rejected any such fees as legally impermissible for a natural waterway; and the US position is that free passage is a matter of customary international law. Iran's state-run Fars news agency reported that the deal envisions joint management by Iran and Oman, a framework the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War described as a potential "significant strategic victory for Iran" if it became the accepted reality.
The framework agreement, brokered largely by Pakistan, sets out a 60-day negotiation period on Iran's nuclear programme and the possible lifting of sanctions, to begin after Friday's formal signing. Key provisions remain confidential, and the two sides have offered diverging public interpretations of what was agreed. Iran's foreign minister struck a cautious note, saying his country carries a "history of broken commitments" in mind. Meanwhile, the closure of the strait — through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas normally flows — has accelerated the development of overland alternatives. Syria's Mediterranean ports at Tartus and Latakia have seen a 25 percent increase in trade since March, and convoys of up to 1,400 Iraqi oil trucks per day are crossing Syrian territory to reach the coast, highlighting how the crisis has reshuffled regional trade routes in ways that may outlast the immediate conflict.
The commercial shipping industry is bracing for a gradual, rather than immediate, return to normalcy. "The key point is that the strait may reopen quickly from a political or security perspective, but the commercial shipping system is likely to normalise gradually," said Dimitris Ampatzidis of Kpler. Insurers, ship captains, and port operators are all watching to see whether early movers transit safely before committing to resumed schedules — meaning the full economic impact of any deal will take weeks, if not months, to materialise.