Friedrich Merz, the conservative Christian Democrat who became Germany's chancellor on 6 May 2025, has reached his first anniversary in office facing what analysts describe as the worst approval ratings of any post-war German leader. Only around 11–13% of Germans say they are satisfied with his performance, while upwards of 85% express dissatisfaction — figures that have worsened sharply since his early months in power and now trail even those of his unpopular predecessor, Olaf Scholz.

Merz came to office promising to break with the turbulence of the previous three-party coalition between the Social Democrats, the Greens, and the liberal Free Democrats, which collapsed early. He formed a grand coalition between his CDU/CSU bloc and the Social Democrats (SPD), a centre-right and centre-left partnership that has historically been seen as a guarantor of stable governance in Germany. He set ambitious goals — a promised "autumn of reforms" covering pensions, healthcare, and social welfare — and secured special funds worth hundreds of billions of euros for defence spending and infrastructure. Yet much of the broader reform agenda has been delegated to committees, and key questions on pension reform, health funding and tax policy remain unresolved. Friction between the CDU/CSU and SPD has been relentless. A widely reported incident in which Merz allegedly shouted at Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil during a crisis meeting dominated headlines for days, though Merz denied it and Klingbeil later suggested his account had been ironic. The two sides now openly blame each other in public, even as both acknowledge that early elections would be dangerous: polls show the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leading with around 27% support, ahead of Merz's CDU/CSU at 22% and well ahead of the SPD, which has slumped to roughly 12%.

Germany's economic backdrop has deepened public frustration. After two years of recession and near-zero growth, Europe's largest economy is expected to expand by only around 0.5% this year, with the conflict in Iran — which has led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping — adding a fresh energy crisis to existing structural problems. Merz's promises of visible improvement by summer 2025 were not met, and citizens interviewed in Berlin describe him as too remote, too conservative on social issues, and too impulsive.

The chancellor's difficulties have extended to the international stage. A comment Merz made to secondary school students — that the United States appeared to lack a strategy on Iran and was being "humiliated" by Iranian leadership — drew a sharp response from President Donald Trump, who publicly criticised Merz and announced the withdrawal of 5,000 US troops currently stationed in Germany, as well as threatened a 25% tariff surcharge on European Union exports. German industry, particularly the car manufacturing sector heavily dependent on the US market, urged de-escalation. Merz quickly sought to soften his position, saying the transatlantic relationship was "essential" for Germany and acknowledging that Trump had a point regarding the EU's failure to finalise a trade agreement that would freeze tariffs. Berlin's foreign and defence ministers have since urged calm, framing the troop withdrawal as something already anticipated. A separate concern has emerged: Merz appeared to confirm that a planned deployment of US Tomahawk intermediate-range cruise missiles to Germany — seen as part of NATO's deterrence posture against a possible Russian threat — may no longer be going ahead, as the missiles have been heavily used in the Gulf.

With two regional elections in Germany expected in September, in which the AfD is currently favoured, and a coalition under strain with no realistic alternative, Merz finds himself in a politically exposed position. Some analysts suggest that if the CDU/CSU and SPD cannot hold together until the end of the parliamentary term in 2029 — something 58% of respondents in one poll believe unlikely — a realignment toward the Greens could eventually be explored, despite major policy differences. For now, Merz has acknowledged that he needs to do more to win public trust. "In a democracy, you have to bring people along," he told Der Spiegel. Doing so, after a bruising first year, will be his defining challenge.