Welsh Labour, which has won every election in Wales since 1922 and every devolved vote since 1999, is expected to lose power next month in elections to the Senedd (Wales's devolved parliament), potentially ending 27 years of continuous governance. Polls suggest the party could fall to third place with around 13% of the vote, as former supporters shift toward both the pro-independence Plaid Cymru and Nigel Farage's Reform UK, with a Plaid-led government now considered the most likely outcome. Analysts describe the moment as existential for Welsh Labour, warning that a Plaid Cymru entry into government as the dominant partner — alongside the SNP in Scotland and Sinn Féin in Northern Ireland — would leave whichever party holds Downing Street facing simultaneous constitutional pressures across all three devolved nations.