Hungary has ordered ten Russian diplomats to leave Budapest, accusing them of engaging in activities described as "unacceptable for diplomats under the Vienna Convention." Foreign Minister Anita Orbán — who is not related to former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán — announced the expulsion without specifying the exact nature of the conduct, but stated that the move "protects Hungary's security and sovereignty" and does not constitute a formal break in diplomatic relations. Moscow swiftly hit back, with the Russian foreign ministry's spokeswoman warning that "the response to the Russophobic lobby will be harsh and painful."

The decision marks a significant turning point for Hungary, a landlocked Central European country that was long regarded as Russia's closest ally within the European Union. Under Viktor Orbán, Budapest consistently blocked or delayed EU sanctions packages against Russia, opposed military aid to Ukraine, and resisted pressure to distance itself from Moscow, partly justifying close ties through reliance on cheap Russian energy imports. Since his election defeat in April, the new government led by Prime Minister Péter Magyar and his Tisza party has steadily reversed that stance, pledging closer alignment with the EU and NATO. In May, Anita Orbán made history by summoning the Russian ambassador — the first such summons since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — to protest a major drone strike on Ukraine's Transcarpathia region, which is home to a substantial Hungarian minority. Last month, the government formally declared that Russia's conduct in Ukraine poses a threat to Hungary, Europe, and the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia.

Intelligence concerns appear to have underpinned the expulsion. Ahead of April's elections, the independent Russian investigative outlet Agentsvo had reported that as many as 15 of the 47 Russian embassy staff in Budapest were linked to Russian intelligence agencies. Former Hungarian foreign intelligence deputy head András Telkes told the BBC that, although Russian spying activity had been investigated before the election, the previous Fidesz government had blocked any action. The expulsion of ten diplomats would, he noted, significantly reduce the Russian presence and could trigger a reciprocal response that might effectively shut down the Hungarian embassy in Moscow.

The European Union backed Budapest's decision, with a Commission spokesperson describing it as "an expected reaction" to "Russia's persistent campaign of using hybrid attacks against the EU and its member states." The move comes amid broader European concerns about Russian hybrid warfare, including the discovery of explosive-laden drones near a Ukrainian cargo aircraft at Leipzig airport in August and the arrest in Romania of a 40-year-old Russian national suspected of planning sabotage operations against defence and critical infrastructure.

Why this matters: Hungary's expulsion of Russian diplomats is the clearest signal yet that Budapest's foreign policy realignment is substantive and not merely rhetorical. For years, Viktor Orbán's government acted as a brake on EU unity towards Russia; the new government's willingness to take a concrete security step — while carefully keeping diplomatic channels open — suggests a meaningful shift in the balance of pro- and anti-Russia sentiment within the bloc. How Moscow chooses to retaliate will be a key test of whether Hungary can manage a stable, if cooler, relationship with Russia going forward.