A compounding crisis is unfolding around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, as ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States and Israel — which began on 28 February — has effectively closed one of the world's most critical maritime corridors. The closure is now sending shockwaves through global food, energy, and digital infrastructure systems, with the United Nations warning that mass starvation could result if the disruption continues for much longer.

In peacetime, the Strait of Hormuz carries roughly a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, as well as fertilisers produced in Gulf states — making it a linchpin of the world's food supply chains. With Iran largely blocking commercial shipping since the conflict began, and Washington imposing a blockade on Iranian ports, fertiliser prices have rocketed and food prices have reached a three-year high. Aid agencies fear tens of millions more people could be pushed into hunger, particularly in vulnerable economies already burdened by debt and high import costs. The situation closely echoes the supply shock caused by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when both a major food and fertiliser exporter was taken off the market simultaneously.

Tensions at sea are escalating alongside the economic fallout. Iranian military personnel have seized a Honduras-flagged vessel, the Hui Chuan, which was reportedly operating as a "floating armoury" storing weapons for maritime security firms in the Gulf of Oman. Separately, an Indian-flagged livestock carrier, the Haji Ali, reportedly sank off the coast of Oman following a suspected drone or missile strike, though all 14 crew members were rescued by Omani coast guard units. India's Ministry of External Affairs described the attack as "unacceptable". Iran has, however, allowed a number of Chinese vessels to pass through the strait, according to Iran's Revolutionary Guards — a signal of the selective leverage Tehran is now wielding over global trade.

The crisis has risen to the top of the diplomatic agenda. On the sidelines of a summit in Beijing, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides agreeing it must remain open for the free flow of energy. Trump said Xi had assured him that China would not provide military equipment to Iran and had offered to help facilitate a resolution. China's foreign ministry followed up by calling for a lasting ceasefire and urging that shipping lanes be reopened "as soon as possible", adding: "There is no point in continuing this conflict which should not have happened in the first place."

Beyond shipping and food, analysts are raising alarms about a less visible vulnerability: the undersea internet cables that run through the strait. Iranian state-linked media has floated the idea of charging cable operators for access to what Tehran claims is its offshore territory, while Iranian officials have publicly identified the cables as a strategic pressure point. More than 95% of international data traffic travels through such undersea infrastructure, and disruptions in the region could fragment global communications, destabilise financial markets, and degrade military coordination. Experts warn that repair operations are particularly difficult in contested or militarised waters, making the risk of prolonged outages real. Structural solutions — from shifting to green ammonia fertiliser production, building national food stockpiles, and accelerating the electrification of transport — are being proposed to reduce future dependence on geographically concentrated supply chains, but analysts caution that such transitions take years and require sustained political will.