More than a month after a mass border crossing overwhelmed Spain's North African exclave of Ceuta, the territory remains in a state of deep dysfunction. Between 70,000 and 80,000 migrants crossed from Morocco into the tiny city — which has roughly the same number of permanent residents — on 30 and 31 July. While most returned almost immediately, approximately 5,000 people remain, with some estimates putting the figure as high as 8,000. At least 90 to 150 people died attempting to swim around the border fence, according to various official and local sources. Spain's cabinet approved an aid package of more than 300 million euros, with Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo saying the funds would support "all fronts" in the territory, including essential services and care for unaccompanied children. Shelter capacity currently stands at around 3,300 beds, with a target of 6,000.

Conditions on the ground have deteriorated sharply. Ceuta's chief prosecutor Silvia Rojas reported 23 sexual assaults since the influx began, including nine against children, amounting to nearly one case per day. Migrant girls are described as "particularly vulnerable" due to their irregular status. Bread is being rationed in some bakeries, a refugee tent camp was set fire to, and Red Cross food distributions were blocked. Police have made repeated interventions, including firing warning shots to manage fights outside reception centres. Spain formally requested assistance from EU border agency Frontex and Europol to help process migrants' claims — despite Brussels having offered such help since late July.

The political fallout has been severe. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who visited Ceuta on 31 July but has not returned since, faced criticism even from allies for underestimating the scale of the crisis. His cabinet ministers gave contradictory accounts of what intelligence services knew before the crossing began. Sánchez has notably avoided blaming Morocco, instead pointing to disinformation spread online, which he attributed to actors linked to Russia and Israel and an "international far-right movement." Both countries firmly denied any involvement. The opposition People's Party (PP), a centre-right grouping, and the hard-right Vox party have accused Sánchez of shielding Morocco and mismanaging the crisis. Conservative local leaders called for nationwide solidarity demonstrations on Wednesday, which coincides with Ceuta's annual city holiday.

The diplomatic dimension adds further complexity. Ceuta and its fellow exclave Melilla are recognised as Spanish territory but are subject to a long-standing Moroccan territorial claim. Sánchez announced that King Felipe VI would visit Ceuta "as soon as conditions allow" — a symbolically charged move, as the last visit by a Spanish head of state in 2007 prompted Morocco to withdraw its ambassador from Madrid. The registration and processing of remaining migrants is proceeding slowly, partly because minors and potential asylum seekers cannot be rapidly deported, a legal constraint the government initially appeared to have underestimated in its public messaging.

For the residents of Ceuta, a Spanish autonomous city of around 85,000 people on Morocco's northern coast, daily life has been profoundly disrupted. Business leaders say they lack a clear government plan, while local Muslim residents report feeling treated with suspicion by their neighbours. A Moroccan economist and activist cited in Spanish media described widespread frustration among ordinary Moroccans as a deeper driver of the crisis. The coming days — including Sánchez's scheduled appearance before parliament — will test whether Spain's government can restore both order in Ceuta and its own political credibility.