One month after a ceasefire halted Israeli and American strikes on Iran — part of a renewed military campaign launched in early 2026 — tensions remain acute in the Strait of Hormuz (the narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global oil markets), where both Iranian and US forces are maintaining a dual blockade that is disrupting international shipping. Iran says it is still reviewing a US peace proposal, but analyst Clément Therme, a specialist on Iran, warns that a negotiated breakthrough is unlikely, with both sides more apt to settle into a protracted standoff. Neither Washington nor Tehran currently has an incentive to resume full-scale fighting — the US faces midterm elections and is wary of oil price shocks caused by the blockade, while Iran's weakened economy cannot absorb further military escalation.