Electric vehicles have crossed a structural economic threshold that previous adoption waves never reached, according to a new discussion paper arguing that falling battery costs — down 93% since 2010 — have made the shift self-sustaining and no longer dependent on oil price shocks to drive demand. Global EV sales surpassed 17 million in 2024, with Norway near-fully electrified and Ethiopia (a fast-growing East African economy powered largely by hydroelectricity) reaching roughly 60% EV sales share, outpacing the United States at around 8%. However, researchers warn the transition swaps oil dependence for mineral dependence, as critical materials such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earths are concentrated in geopolitically sensitive supply chains — with China already imposing export controls on rare earths — while job losses in traditional car-manufacturing regions may not be offset by gains for the same workers.