German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faced one of the most damaging electoral nights of his tenure on Sunday, as his centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered historic losses in simultaneous state elections in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and the capital Berlin. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, a largely rural state in Germany's northeast, projections by public broadcaster ARD put the CDU at just 4.9% — below the 5% threshold a party must clear to enter a state legislature. If confirmed in the final count, it would mark the first time in post-war history that the CDU has failed to win seats in any German state parliament. Merz described his party's result as a "disaster," but swiftly appeared before cameras to rule out any retreat. "What needs to be done now requires backbone, steadfastness, and patience," he said, framing his government's economic reforms — including income tax cuts, pension restructuring and cuts to bureaucracy — as an antidote to what he called the growing "poison of authoritarianism" in German society.

In Berlin, the CDU fared somewhat better but still came in second, landing around 19–20%, well behind the Left party (Die Linke), which achieved a historic result of roughly 25.5% under its lead candidate Elif Eralp. Eralp, a Berlin state legislator with Turkish heritage, ran a campaign centred on affordable housing and tenant rights in a city where nearly 42% of residents have a migration background. Her party mobilised intensively — reportedly knocking on a quarter of a million doors — and drew heavily from former non-voters. "Ab heute verändern wir gemeinsam unser Berlin" ("From today we change our Berlin together"), she told jubilant supporters. The CDU's Berlin candidate, Stefan Evers, had himself only been brought in as a last-minute replacement after the previous lead candidate fell from grace over a separate controversy.

The anti-migration, Russia-friendly Alternative for Germany (AfD) also made substantial gains across both states. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania it captured around 37.9% of the vote, and 16.2% in Berlin, though it remained far from being able to form a regional government in either state. AfD national co-leader Alice Weidel declared that her party had "displaced the CDU as the people's party." The strong AfD performance compounded pressure on Merz, whose authority had already been weakened by a stinging CDU defeat in a September election in Saxony-Anhalt and by weeks of speculation — including from within his own party — about whether he should be replaced as chancellor.

Analysts note that the CDU's problems extend beyond Merz's personal unpopularity. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, surveys showed only 1% of CDU voters considered Merz helpful to the campaign. The party's late attempt to win over voters with a proposed fuel price subsidy failed to shift the mood. Meanwhile, Die Linke and the SPD — which retained its position in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania despite falling behind the AfD — both ran campaigns focused on social cohesion and the cost of living, successfully keeping migration from dominating the agenda. Commentators have pointed out that this strategy proved more effective at limiting AfD gains than the CDU's approach.

The results are likely to reopen questions about the direction of the CDU and Merz's leadership, even as the chancellor sought to project resolve. Prominent CDU figure Philipp Amthor acknowledged that internal "personnel discussions" of recent weeks had damaged the party's campaign, and urged that such debates not be continued. In both states, the arithmetic now points toward coalitions of left-leaning parties, with Merz's party sidelined. The outcomes represent a significant moment in a Germany grappling with economic stagnation, a resurgent far right, and a political landscape shifting in ways that few had anticipated even a year ago.