Nearly four years after the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) and Ethiopia's federal government signed the 2022 Pretoria Agreement to end a devastating two-year war, the fragile peace is under mounting strain. The TPLF has retained military structures despite disarmament commitments, and fighting has re-erupted in contested areas including the Tselemt district and western Tigray, while reports of renewed recruitment have alarmed civilians still recovering from the original conflict. The situation is further complicated by unexpected diplomatic contacts between the TPLF and Eritrea — which had previously fought alongside the federal government against the TPLF — and the emergence of Tsimdo, a loose armed coalition that also includes the Oromo Liberation Army and Amhara Fano fighters, all united in opposition to Addis Ababa, raising fears that Ethiopia's unresolved territorial and political disputes could ignite a broader conflict.