The United States House of Representatives has passed legislation granting President Donald Trump sweeping powers to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries that purchase Russian oil and gas, a move that places India — one of the world's largest crude oil importers — in a precarious position. The bill now goes to Trump to be signed into law. Countries would normally have 180 days to reduce Russian energy imports or negotiate with Washington, though the president retains the power to shorten that deadline.

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, India has capitalised on the resulting disruption to global oil markets. Russian crude, shut out of Western markets by sanctions, was redirected to Indian refineries at significant discounts. Russia supplied 30.3% of India's crude imports in fiscal 2026 — worth $40.8 billion out of a total crude import bill of $134.7 billion — making it by far India's largest supplier, ahead of the UAE at 10.8% and Saudi Arabia at 9.6%. In July, Russian crude accounted for more than half of India's monthly imports. Globally, China took roughly half of Russia's crude exports over the past several years, with India accounting for 37%, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a think tank.

India's government said it was "monitoring further developments" while remaining "firmly committed to ensuring energy security" for its 1.4 billion people, adding that the issue had already been raised at high levels with US counterparts. Analysts warn the exposure is substantial. The US imported around $104 billion in Indian goods in 2025, spanning electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery and textiles. A tariff of up to 100% on those exports would deliver a serious blow to Indian industry at a moment when the two countries are engaged in sensitive bilateral trade negotiations. "This new bill could have major problematic impacts for India, and at the worst possible time," said Michael Kugelman of the Atlantic Council, noting that India has less economic leverage over Washington than China does.

Replacing Russian crude at scale would not be straightforward. India imports more than 88% of its crude oil and holds strategic petroleum reserves covering only nine to ten days of net imports — a thin buffer compared with roughly 200 days in Japan or South Korea. Its refineries are not always equipped to switch easily between different crude grades, and alternative supplies would bring higher freight, insurance and shipping costs. Analysts at maritime intelligence firm Kpler caution that the key question is not whether Russian barrels can find other buyers, but whether enough alternative crude exists globally to fill the gap without tightening markets further. India has saved an estimated $12.6 billion since its post-2022 shift toward Russian crude, according to the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.

Some analysts argue the bill is as much a trade lever as an energy policy tool. "Washington could threaten tariffs of up to 100%, then offer a lower rate if Delhi cuts Russian oil purchases and accepts concessions in a deeply unequal trade deal," said Ajay Srivastava, a former Indian trade official and founder of the Delhi-based Global Trade Research Initiative. He urged India to continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it remains commercially competitive and to resist making unilateral concessions under tariff pressure. For New Delhi, the central calculation is whether the savings from discounted Russian crude still outweigh the growing geopolitical and economic cost of procuring it.