Iran and the United States are continuing indirect negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts say a diplomatic breakthrough is unlikely before the US midterm elections in November. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is in New York for the UN General Assembly, said late Monday that he expected a formal American response on Tuesday to Tehran's proposal, delivered through Qatari intermediaries.
"The Qataris presented ideas, and we discussed them; they are set to raise the matter with the American side once more, after which the final US response will be conveyed to us," Araghchi said, according to Iranian state media. He stressed that the current focus is solely on the strait, and that reopening it depends on conditions Tehran has communicated to Washington. Mediators from Qatar and Pakistan are also due to discuss a possible agreement this week, according to Axios.
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula, carried about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas before the conflict began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February. Iran blockaded the strait after the war started, and Washington responded with its own naval blockade of Iranian ports. Iran has also set up an authority, known as PGSA, to manage traffic through the strait, and it warned ships at the weekend of consequences for using "unauthorised" routes.
Iran's proposal, which Araghchi calls a "seven-day plan", would see the US first meet certain requirements, after which the strait would reopen. Tehran is demanding a seven-day ceasefire across the Middle East, including in Lebanon, where its ally Hezbollah is fighting Israeli forces. It also wants Iranian assets abroad unfrozen, sanctions on its oil sector lifted and the US naval blockade ended. President Donald Trump rejected the offer on Saturday, calling it unacceptable and arguing that the blockade is squeezing Iran because it can no longer earn money from energy exports. The Wall Street Journal, citing US officials, reported that Trump expects to resume air strikes on Iran after the November midterms.
Messages from Washington have been mixed. A US official said the administration was "in no hurry" and was holding positive and constructive talks through intermediaries. Axios reported, citing unnamed officials, that Trump was ready to ease sanctions and release frozen funds in return for concrete steps on Iran's nuclear programme. Trump denied this on Truth Social, writing that he had offered Iran nothing.
Why this matters: the two sides remain far apart on what a deal should look like, and Washington intends to keep up economic pressure. With a crucial shipping route still disrupted, the outcome of the talks affects global energy markets as well as the wider regional conflict.